Summer in Ukraine is traditionally associated not only with vacations but also with fluctuations in exchange rates. However, at the beginning of June, experts predict a lull. The market seems to have decided not to create surprises in the first week of the month, continuing the logic of the second half of May. But should we relax and assume that risks have disappeared?
Taras Lesovoy, Director of the Financial Markets Department at Globus Bank, is confident: there are currently no fundamental grounds for a sharp revision of forecasts. The currency market will operate in its usual mode, and the hryvnia should not show anomalous spikes.
Seasonal Factor Guarding Stability
One of the main allies of stability in June is the harvest. The seasonal price increase of food products, which often pushes inflation up, is replaced by abundance at the beginning of summer. Vegetables and berries appearing on shelves help curb price growth. For the currency market, this is a signal: when inflation is moderate, the population has fewer reasons to buy currency "for a rainy day," which reduces speculative demand.
Fuel, Energy, and the "War Factor"
However, calm does not mean the absence of threats. Among the factors that could disrupt the balance, experts cite fuel prices. Geopolitical tension in the Middle East keeps global markets on edge, so cheaper gasoline or diesel in Ukraine is not to be expected. Expensive fuel is always a risk of rising logistics costs and, consequently, commodity prices.
Separately, it is worth mentioning the psychological aspect. News of a possible escalation at the front could provoke emotional demand for the dollar. This does not change fundamental economic indicators but can short-term push the exchange rate up, creating temporary imbalances.
Another "trump card" is energy security. If large-scale power outages resume in the country, businesses will have to spend more on generators and autonomous power. These costs are inevitably factored into the final cost of services, which again hits inflation and indirectly affects the currency.
Forecast: Where Will the Rate Be?
The National Bank of Ukraine continues to operate in a mode of "managed flexibility." This allows the regulator to promptly smooth out imbalances through currency interventions, preventing the market from falling into free fall or soaring. Thanks to this, the cash and interbank markets remain synchronized.
In the first week of June, the dollar is forecast to fluctuate in the range of 44–44.5 UAH. This confirms an inertial scenario without sharp jumps. The euro, in turn, will depend on global quotes. If the parity with the dollar remains at 1.16–1.18, the European currency in Ukraine will trade in the range of 50.5–52.5 UAH.
Experts allow that on certain days the amplitude of fluctuations may reach 0.3–0.7 UAH, but this will not change the overall picture. Summer promises to be predictable, unless geopolitics makes its own adjustments.