The American currency has been updating local highs for several days in a row, approaching the 44.40 hryvnia mark. At the same time, the euro, after yesterday's decline, has returned to growth. What lies behind this dynamic and does it indicate a weakening of the national currency — we found out with experts.
Official rates: dollar and euro back in the green
The National Bank of Ukraine set the official dollar rate for Friday, June 5, at 44.37 UAH — this is 3 kopecks higher than the previous day's figure. The euro also became more expensive: its rate was 51.66 UAH, which is 14 kopecks more than on June 4.
Thus, the dollar continued a series of local highs, while the euro returned to the levels of the beginning of the week.
Why the dollar is rising: expert view
Financial analyst Andriy Shevchyshyn, in a comment to RBC-Ukraine, explained that the current rate dynamics are related not only to internal processes but also to changes in the global foreign exchange market.
According to him, the National Bank is gradually orienting towards a bivalent approach, where the ratio between the euro and the dollar plays an increasingly important role.
"When the euro weakens against the dollar in the global market, the NBU is forced to adjust the dollar rate against the hryvnia to maintain the corresponding proportions," the expert notes.
That is why the strengthening of the American currency in international markets automatically affects the Ukrainian foreign exchange market as well.
The euro is more important than the dollar for the Ukrainian economy
In Shevchyshyn's opinion, the current rise in the dollar does not yet indicate a full-fledged weakening of the hryvnia. The analyst emphasizes that it is important to monitor not only the dollar but also the euro — it is the European currency that has an increasing influence on the Ukrainian economy.
A significant part of foreign aid comes to Ukraine in euros, a large part of the public debt is denominated in this currency, as well as a significant part of export-import operations.
"We see real devaluation when the hryvnia weakens simultaneously against both the dollar and the euro. There are no such signs now," the expert explains.
Summer lull and external factors
According to Shevchyshyn, the current fluctuations remain insignificant and have not yet formed a new long-term trend in the foreign exchange market. In addition, the summer period is traditionally considered one of the most calm for the Ukrainian foreign exchange market.
Therefore, the current update of local dollar highs is more likely linked by the analyst to external currency factors than to a fundamental deterioration of the situation for the hryvnia.