The Ukrainian currency market has recorded a significant shift: the National Bank of the country has raised the official exchange rate of the US dollar to a level approaching the psychological threshold of 45 hryvnias. At the same time, the European currency showed the opposite trend, dropping significantly after several days of growth.
New official rates for June 19
According to the regulator, the official dollar rate for Friday, June 19, was set at 44.91 hryvnias. This is 11 kopecks higher than the previous day's rate of 44.80 hryvnias. Thus, the national currency continued its slow weakening against the US dollar.
In contrast to the dollar, the euro demonstrated a decline. The official rate of the European currency was 51.45 hryvnias, which is 48 kopecks less than on June 18 (51.93 hryvnias). Experts note that such divergent movements of currencies have created an unexpected scenario for the market.
Expert opinion: forecast or alarming signal?
Taras Lesovoy, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Activities Department of Globus Bank, commented on the current situation in an interview with RBC-Ukraine. According to him, the observed fluctuations remain within the framework of macroeconomic forecasts and do not indicate critical changes.
Lesovoy emphasized that the state budget planning for 2026 already includes a weighted average rate of 45.7 hryvnias per dollar. Therefore, the current level of around 45 hryvnias is perceived more as a psychological mark rather than a sign of a systemic crisis.
Risk factors: oil and logistics
Despite the calm assessment of the current situation, the expert warned about the preservation of certain risks for the currency market. The key factor of instability remains global fuel prices.
The rise in the cost of oil and petroleum products directly affects imports, logistics costs, and the cost of production within the country. This, in turn, increases the business demand for foreign currency. Lesovoy noted that it is oil traders who have been supporting increased demand for currency since the beginning of the year, forced to hedge against possible sharp fluctuations in global energy prices.