At the beginning of the new week, the official exchange rate of the national currency showed a noticeable decline. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) set the US dollar exchange rate at 44.56 hryvnias on July 6. Compared to the previous banking day, the American currency became cheaper by 24 kopecks. The day before, on July 4, the rate was 44.80 hryvnias.

The Euro is also losing value

The decline also affected the European currency, although on a smaller scale. The official exchange rate of the euro was set at 51.02 hryvnias, which is 6 kopecks lower than the previous day's figure. Previously, the euro cost 51.08 hryvnias. Thus, both major currencies are showing a trend of becoming cheaper at the beginning of the week, with the dollar showing the most significant decline in recent days.

Connection to global oil prices

Experts link the current dynamics to changes in global commodity markets. Serhiy Mamedov, Vice President of the Association of Ukrainian Banks and Chairman of the Board of "Globus Bank", noted in a comment to RBC-Ukraine that the decline in oil prices is a positive factor for the country's economy.

Ukraine remains import-dependent on fuel, so the cheapening of oil potentially reduces pressure on imports, lowers logistics costs and the cost of goods, which ultimately affects inflation.

Why the hryvnia will not strengthen sharply

Despite favorable signals from the commodity market, experts urge not to expect an automatic sharp strengthening of the national currency. Serhiy Mamedov emphasized that the exchange rate of the hryvnia depends on a complex of factors:

  • Overall demand for currency;
  • Volume of international aid;
  • Security situation;
  • Actions of the National Bank;
  • Mood of businesses and citizens.

According to the banker, the global oil market has not yet returned to full balance after the end of the conflict in Iran. Despite the fact that quotes have returned to a level of around $73 per barrel, the situation remains unstable. Cheaper fuel may only help avoid additional pressure on the exchange rate, but does not eliminate the risks of a war economy.