The Ukrainian currency market will enter a phase of heightened attention next week. The main factor determining the dynamics of the hryvnia exchange rate will be the National Bank's decision on the refinancing rate, which is scheduled to be announced on June 18. Experts expect the current parameters of monetary policy to be maintained, which should ensure stability amidst the ongoing war.
Key Event: Monetary Policy Committee Meeting
According to forecasts, most analysts expect the regulator to keep the refinancing rate at 15%. Such a move will help maintain the predictability of economic policy and prevent sharp fluctuations in financial markets. If the rate remains unchanged, it will signal that the National Bank sees no grounds for revising the current regulatory model.
Dollar Forecast: Corridor and Interventions
Taras Lesovoy, Director of the Financial Markets Department at Globus Bank, forecasts that the dollar exchange rate on the interbank market will fluctuate within the range of 44.4 to 45.1 hryvnias. On the cash market, the range may be slightly narrower — from 44.3 to 45 hryvnias.
Demand for foreign currency still exceeds supply by approximately 10–15%. To smooth out this imbalance, the National Bank, according to the expert's estimates, will need to conduct currency interventions totaling $850 to $900 million. "This volume is indicative: the market is not in perfect balance, but it does not show signs of being out of control," Lesovoy noted.
Euro: Dependence on Global Trends
The euro exchange rate will depend not only on internal factors but also on the global situation. The expected euro-to-dollar ratio is 1.15–1.18. Under this scenario, the euro exchange rate in Ukraine will most likely remain within the range of 51–52.5 hryvnias.
Pressure and Support Factors
The currency market continues to be influenced by war risks, inflation, the economy's dependence on fuel prices, as well as potential issues in energy, logistics, and production. At the same time, the negative impact may be partially offset by the seasonal price drop of vegetables and berries, as well as expectations of further international financial assistance.
Conclusion: Controlled Tension
According to Taras Lesovoy, next week will be a period of "controlled tension." Risks will remain high, but the situation in the currency market will generally remain predictable. If the NBU maintains the rate at 15% and intervention volumes remain sufficient, the dollar will continue to move within the forecasted exchange rate corridors.
Note: This material is prepared for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Investments involve risk, including the possibility of total loss of capital. Before making any investment decisions, we recommend consulting a licensed financial advisor.