According to the latest forecasts, the Ukrainian currency market in the second half of 2026 will demonstrate stability and predictability. Experts do not expect uncontrolled shock jumps in the exchange rates of major currencies, creating a favorable background for economic planning.
Exchange Rate Forecast: Dollar and Euro
According to the basic scenario outlined in a comment by RBC-Ukraine, the US dollar exchange rate will fluctuate within the range of 45.5 to 46.5 hryvnias. The euro, in turn, is expected to be in the range of 52.5–53.5 hryvnias per unit. This forecast was given by Serhiy Mametov, Vice President of the Association of Ukrainian Banks and Chairman of the Board of "Globus Bank".
The Role of the National Bank
The key tool for maintaining market equilibrium will remain the "managed flexibility" regime implemented by the National Bank of Ukraine. The regulator retains the ability to intervene operationally: if necessary, currency interventions will be conducted to smooth out excessive fluctuations. This will allow the market to adapt to difficult conditions without sharp shocks.
Deposits as Protection for Savings
Currency market stability is of fundamental importance for depositor expectations and business investment plans. Current market mathematics shows that hryvnia deposits with annual rates of 14–14.5% are capable of fully covering devaluation risks. This means that savings in the national currency will be protected from depreciation even under inflationary pressure.
Influencing Factors and Long-Term Expectations
Despite challenges related to the war and significant state budget needs, exchange rate changes in the second half of the year will be moderate and controlled. A sharp weakening of the hryvnia currently looks like an unlikely scenario.
It is worth noting that the Government of Ukraine forecasts a longer-term dynamic: by the end of 2029, the dollar exchange rate could reach 51.5 hryvnias. Experts' opinions on the realism of such expectations remain a subject of discussion, however, the short-term horizon of 2026 looks calm.
