The Ukrainian hryvnia is expected to undergo a period of gradual weakening against the US dollar over the next two years. According to an aggregated macroeconomic forecast prepared by the "Center for Economic Strategy," the exchange rate of the national currency will rise, reaching a mark of 49 hryvnias per dollar by the end of 2027.

The document, published with reference to RBC-Ukraine, combines assessments from leading economic institutions and investment companies. Experts from Concorde Capital, Dragon Capital, ICU, Kyiv School of Economics, the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting, as well as the German Economic Team and WIIW, participated in calculating the median indicator.

Detailed Two-Year Forecast

Analysts see the following trajectory for the exchange rate:

  • 2026: The average annual rate is expected to be at the level of 44.5 hryvnias per dollar. By the end of the year, a weakening to 46 hryvnias is forecasted.
  • 2027: The average annual indicator will be 47.1 hryvnias, and by December, the rate could reach 49 hryvnias per dollar.

Despite the forecasted rise in the exchange rate, experts are confident in the regulator's ability to control the situation. The key factor for stability will be the conversion of external financial aid, which will allow the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) to increase its gold and foreign exchange reserves.

Growth of Reserves and Interventions

According to the average forecast, the volume of NBU reserves will increase from current levels to $61 billion in 2026 and to $63 billion in 2027. This will create a sufficient buffer for conducting interventions in the interbank market.

Vladimir Lepushinsky, Deputy Chairman of the NBU Board, stated during the discussion of forecasts that reserves could grow even faster. According to him, by the end of the current year, the volume of reserves could reach $70 billion.

"The need for interventions will be high, but we have international reserves to cover them," the official emphasized.

Current Market Situation

Against the backdrop of long-term forecasts, the current situation in the currency market remains relatively calm. As of the morning of August 5, the average buying rate for the dollar in exchange offices was 44.63 hryvnias, and the selling rate was 44.75 hryvnias. The euro on the cash market was traded in the range of 51.35–51.55 hryvnias.

On August 6, the NBU adjusted the official exchange rate: the dollar became cheaper by 6 kopecks to 44.68 hryvnias, while the euro rose by 9 kopecks to 51.62 hryvnias.

The National Bank assured that it does not expect significant jumps in the exchange rate, even against the backdrop of the blockade of exports from the agro-industrial complex and metallurgy. The regulator intends to keep dangerous volatility in check using available tools and reserves.