The Ukrainian currency market is in a state of heightened sensitivity, but experts do not predict catastrophic scenarios. According to Serhiy Mametov, Vice President of the Association of Ukrainian Banks and Chairman of the Board of Globus Bank, the dollar may periodically approach the psychological mark of 45 hryvnias or even situationally cross it. However, this will not be a signal of the beginning of a currency crisis.
"Controlled Flexibility" Mode
Currently, the exchange rate of the national currency operates in a mode that the expert calls "controlled flexibility." This is a kind of protective mechanism that allows the rate to move but prevents it from getting out of control. The National Bank of Ukraine remains the key player, possessing tools to smooth out excessive fluctuations.
"I would not talk about "jumps" as something expected. This is rather an atypical scenario of events," Mametov emphasized in an interview with RBC-Ukraine. A gradual increase of several tens of kopecks is normal for current conditions and does not have a shock effect on the economy.
What determines the price of the dollar
The stability or volatility of the exchange rate depends directly on a complex of external and internal factors. Among the key drivers, the expert highlighted:
- The course of military operations and the situation at the front.
- The regularity and volume of international financial aid.
- The need to import fuel and energy equipment.
- The general inflationary situation and the monetary policy of the NBU.
Any large-scale attacks on critical infrastructure or logistics can instantly change the mood of businesses and the population, causing short-term surges in demand for foreign currency. At the same time, the rhythmic flow of aid from abroad acts as the main factor of stability.
Forecast until the end of summer
Analysts at Globus Bank lean towards the idea that in the absence of new large-scale shocks, the market will demonstrate moderate volatility. "By the end of summer, moderate fluctuations will be natural, but without signs of "roller coasters." Most likely, exchange rate changes will be gradual and will not exceed 45.5 UAH per dollar," Mametov predicts.
An additional factor supporting the hryvnia remains the high discount rate of the National Bank. It makes hryvnia deposits more attractive for the population, reducing speculative demand for foreign currency.
Thus, the current period is better characterized not as "currency swings," but as a time of heightened market sensitivity to the news background. The main thing for the economy is not the number on the exchange board, but the amplitude of fluctuations. As long as the regulator maintains control and inflation does not get out of control, the market remains predictable even in wartime conditions.