The Ukrainian foreign exchange market has faced a notable acceleration in devaluation processes: as of October 27, 2026, the dollar exchange rate on the interbank market rose to the level of 45.6 hryvnias. This move marks the most significant jump in recent months, raising concerns among businesses and the public. Experts note that the current shift in the exchange rate goes beyond the usual format of "slow devaluation," showing an increase of more than one percent in just one week.
The impact of international financial uncertainty
One of the key reasons for the current volatility is the uncertainty surrounding the receipt of foreign financing, which is critical for Ukraine's budgetary stability. According to Taras Kozak, founder of the UNIVER investment group, the success of external borrowing from the EU and IMF depends directly on the willingness of the Ukrainian authorities to fulfill their obligations, especially in the area of anti-corruption efforts. Despite progress in technical issues and tax reforms, the lack of active legislative work on several anti-corruption fronts creates risks of delays or reductions in the tranches necessary to fund expenditures through the end of 2026 and throughout 2027.
The role of the National Bank in exchange rate formation
Despite external pressure, experts emphasize that the National Bank of Ukraine possesses sufficient instruments and gold and foreign exchange reserves to control the situation. The increase in the rate to 45.6 hryvnias is occurring at previous trading volumes, indicating an absence of panic-driven demand. Specialists suggest that the regulator may be testing the market's readiness for higher exchange rate marks. In the short term, the dynamics of the hryvnia remain in the hands of the NBU, which can both facilitate further growth and conduct a correction towards strengthening the national currency.
Prospects until 2027
The long-term forecast for the development of the situation in the foreign exchange market remains moderately devaluation-oriented. Analysts point out that economic realities dictate a gradual weakening of the hryvnia within the range of up to 10% per year. The baseline scenario suggests that by the end of 2027, the value of the dollar could reach a mark of around 50 hryvnias. At the same time, market participants are advised to monitor the regulator's decisions and the requirements of international financial donors, as these factors will determine the amplitude of rate fluctuations in the medium term.
What to expect next
The current situation in the foreign exchange market highlights the high degree of dependence of the Ukrainian economy on external support and the effectiveness of internal reforms. Further development of events will depend on the government's ability to balance fiscal policy with the demands of international creditors. It is expected that the NBU will continue its policy of managed flexibility, aiming to prevent sharp collapses and maintaining control over the monetary sector to support the country's macroeconomic stability.
