Dollar stalls at peak, euro plunges: what's happening with exchange rates in Ukraine on June 4

The Ukrainian foreign exchange market on Thursday, June 4, demonstrated divergent dynamics for major currency pairs. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) fixed the official exchange rate of the US dollar at 44.34 hryvnias. The American currency, which had shown growth in previous days, stopped at its maximum level, effectively maintaining its positions compared to the previous banking day.

The situation with the European currency turned out differently. After a period of prolonged strengthening, the euro shifted to a decline. The official rate of the European currency was set at the mark of 51.52 hryvnias. This is 14 kopecks lower than the previous day's figure, marking the most significant daily drop in the euro's rate in recent days.

Factors influencing demand in June

Experts note that the current situation in the market remains stable. Taras Lesovoy, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Activities Department at «GLOBUS BANK», pointed out the key drivers of currency demand in the current month in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.

According to the expert, the main burden on the market in June will be borne by importers. Specifically, this refers to companies that purchase fuel and other critically important goods. It is precisely this segment of the economy that forms the main demand for foreign currency during this period.

Forecast: why the hryvnia will not collapse

Despite the activity of importers, analysts do not predict the emergence of critical situations in the foreign exchange market. According to Taras Lesovoy's estimates, the imbalance between supply and demand will remain within 10–15%. Such a gap is not critical and can be compensated using the familiar regulation tools available to the National Bank.

The market continues to function within familiar limits, and at the moment there are no signs that could provoke a sharp devaluation of the national currency. The main factor restraining sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate remains the active presence of the regulator in the market and the controlled exchange rate policy it conducts.