The Ukrainian currency market is showing dynamics again. The National Bank has significantly adjusted the official exchange rates of major currencies, sending a noticeable signal to all market participants. The dollar and the euro have shown steady growth, returning to local highs after several days of calm.

Sharp jump in exchange rates

For Wednesday, June 10, the regulator set the US dollar rate at 44.84 hryvnias. This is a significant change compared to the previous banking day: the American currency rose by 33 kopecks at once. The euro was not left behind either — the rate of the European currency increased by 54 kopecks, reaching the mark of 51.89 hryvnias.

Thus, the European currency has almost fully recovered from the recent decline, confirming the upward trend at the current stage.

Forecast: why it is too early to panic

Despite the current surge in the exchange rate, experts are not inclined to predict a catastrophic devaluation of the hryvnia in the near future. Taras Kozak, founder and president of the investment group UNIVER, outlined a realistic scenario for the development of events in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.

According to his estimates, by the end of 2026, the dollar rate is unlikely to rise by more than 10%. A scenario of moderate devaluation at the level of 7–8% seems more likely. If at the beginning of the year the dollar cost about 42 hryvnias, then by the end of the year it will probably remain below the mark of 46 hryvnias.

NBU Strategy: protecting citizens' savings

The expert explains the caution in forecasts by the policy of the National Bank. The regulator consistently strives to maintain the attractiveness of hryvnia financial instruments for the population. The main task of the National Bank is to convince citizens that the return on bank deposits and internal government bonds (OVGZ) should exceed the rate of possible weakening of the national currency.

That is why the regulator is interested in Ukrainians not rushing to transfer savings into foreign currency, but continuing to invest in hryvnia assets.

Investments vs. simple storage

Taras Kozak notes that at current rates, investing in OVGZ may turn out to be more profitable than simply holding funds in dollars. The math is simple: after the end of the investment term, the income from hryvnia assets may allow the investor to buy more foreign currency than if he had immediately converted the funds and simply kept them idle.