The Ukrainian government has prepared a long-term macroeconomic forecast that highlights the scale of challenges facing the national economy. The document, presented by the Cabinet of Ministers to the deputies of the Verkhovna Rada, contains data on exchange rate dynamics, the level of public debt, and the need for international financing in the coming years.
Exchange Rate: Growth Scenario Even After the End of the War
According to the baseline calculation by the Ministry of Finance, the national currency will gradually depreciate. It is forecasted that next year the average annual exchange rate of the US dollar may reach 48.3 hryvnias. By the end of 2029, experts estimate the rate could rise to 51.5 hryvnias per dollar.
Special attention in the document is paid to the security factor. The Cabinet of Ministers emphasizes that this trajectory of devaluation persists even under an optimistic scenario of a relatively quick end to active hostilities. This is due to the fact that the economy will face colossal costs for infrastructure reconstruction and an imbalance in foreign trade, which will inevitably exert pressure on the national currency.
Public Debt and Funding Needs
To cover the budget deficit and fulfill social obligations, the country will require large-scale borrowing. It is forecasted that the level of public debt will continue to grow and by the end of 2027 may amount to about 113% of the gross domestic product (GDP).
The total need of Ukraine for international financing — including grants and loans from allies — is estimated at 2.13 trillion hryvnias. These funds are necessary to maintain the functioning of the state under current and future economic challenges.
Significance of the Forecast for the Budget
The presented figures are a key benchmark for the Ministry of Finance when drafting state budgets for the upcoming periods. The document serves as a basis for planning fiscal policy and assessing the risks that the country's economy will face in the medium and long term.