Amidst loud statements by Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding the expansion of economic prospects and sustainable development, actual indicators of the Russian economy demonstrate a different picture. This was stated in a comment to RBC-Ukraine by Vladislav Vlasuk, the President of Ukraine's Commissioner for Sanction Policy.
The expert emphasizes that, despite public optimism, key macroeconomic indicators point to a growing systemic crisis. According to analysts, the current state of the Russian economy is already being compared to that of a "bankrupt state".
Budget Deficit and Regional Collapse
According to data from Vladislav Vlasuk, the revenues of the Russian federal budget have decreased by approximately 40% year-on-year. Notably, this decline occurred even against the backdrop of high global oil prices. The total budget deficit, according to his estimates, exceeded $80 billion.
Pressure on the economy is also intensifying at the regional level. Statistics show that 71 out of 85 Russian regions ended last year with a budget deficit. The total negative balance of the regions exceeded $34 billion, indicating deep problems in resource distribution.
Capital Flight and Crisis of Confidence
One of the most alarming signals has been the sharp decline in confidence in the Russian economy among external partners. The share of foreign capital in Russia, according to experts, has dropped to a critical 0.01%. This effectively means the winding down of external investment participation in the country.
The situation within the Russian business sector is also deteriorating. More than 30% of entrepreneurs are considering reducing or completely closing their operations. Another third of business owners are planning to move into the shadow sector. Among the main reasons cited are increased tax burdens and disruptions in internet access.
The business activity index has entered negative territory for the first time since 2022, confirming negative sentiments in the business environment.
Financial Instability and Export Decline
An additional indicator of pressure has been the rise in non-performing loans to 12%. There is an increase in the share of cash transactions, indicating a decline in confidence among the population and businesses in the banking system. Against this backdrop, according to Vlasuk, the Central Bank of Russia is preparing to remove a number of regional banks from the market.
Russia's foreign trade balance has also significantly decreased — almost threefold since the start of the full-scale war: from $337 billion to $125 billion. Major export companies are recording a drop in revenues, while individual state projects are facing an acute financing deficit.
Vladislav Vlasuk concludes that against the backdrop of public statements about "new opportunities," economic statistics indicate the opposite trend. In his assessment, sanction pressure has a cumulative effect and is gradually limiting the Russian economy's access to investments, technologies, and key global markets.