The Russian Federation has no intention of abandoning its tactics of terror against the civilian population of Ukraine and may even increase the intensity of attacks. This forecast was voiced by military expert and Territorial Defense Forces serviceman Alexander Musienko in an interview with RBK-Ukraine.
In the specialist's opinion, Moscow is forced to resort to such measures because it is unable to achieve its strategic goals on the front line. The Russian army is suffering losses, and strikes on the enemy's logistical chains are becoming increasingly effective. Under these conditions, Vladimir Putin is trying to create an illusion of control over the situation and a demonstration of strength for the domestic audience and the international community.
"Putin is looking for something that will create an image of strength for the Russian audience and for the world. That he controls the situation. He has no other way but terrorist crimes, but these acts of terror against the civilian population," the expert emphasized.
Two Scenarios for the Development of Events
Alexander Musienko identified two probable scenarios by which enemy shelling may develop in the near future. The first is related to the need to accumulate weapon reserves.
In this case, the occupiers may change the structure of attacks: reduce the use of ballistic missiles and increase the number of strikes using unmanned aerial vehicles. However, despite the possible change in tactical tools, the terror against civilians will not cease.
The second scenario is tied to the prospects of resuming the negotiation process. If there is an opportunity for real negotiations in the autumn, the activity of enemy strikes may increase significantly. The Russian side may try to use military pressure as a lever to improve its positions at the negotiating table.