A serious debate is brewing in Brussels regarding the future status of millions of Ukrainians who fled the war. European Union countries are discussing radical changes to the Temporary Protection Directive (TPD) that could deprive men of conscription age of the right to automatically reside and work in Europe after 2027.
Narrowing the circle: who will be affected?
According to an internal document of the EU Council, which became public thanks to the publication Euractiv, European leaders are considering options to extend the protection program, but with significant restrictions. In particular, the discussion concerns excluding two categories of citizens from protection: men of conscription age and those who left Ukraine illegally.
The key point being conveyed to the public is that any new restrictions will likely be discriminatory towards new applicants. This means that those who have already obtained refugee status and live in the EU will retain their rights, while those who attempt to cross the border in the future may face rejection.
Why is Europe changing the rules of the game?
The reasons for reviewing the policy are on the surface. Several EU governments have expressed concern that the proportion of men of conscription age among recently arrived Ukrainians is growing. The EU Council document explicitly states that a number of countries believe it is necessary to review the system "also in the interests of Ukraine."
The logic of Brussels is simple but harsh: the return of men to their homeland is necessary to support the defense and future reconstruction of the country. However, this approach contradicts the principle of collective protection that has been in effect since 2022.
Norway has already started the "clean-up"
The European Union is not waiting for a single decision, and some countries have already started acting independently. A striking example is Norway. Since March of this year, men aged 18 to 60 in this country no longer receive collective protection automatically. This decision became the first sign of what might happen on a scale of the entire EU.
Ministers decide the fate of the program
The final decision on the future of the scheme will be made this week. Migration ministers will gather for a meeting of the Justice and Home Affairs Council to develop political guidelines. Any official proposal to extend or change the program must be initiated by the European Commission.
Previously, the Commission had already recommended that countries prepare for the gradual termination of the temporary protection program and the transition to more stable legal statuses. However, as experts note, progress in this matter is extremely uneven, and there is no consensus yet.
Everyday difficulties and myths about outflow
Alongside political discussions, Ukrainians already in Europe are facing real economic problems. This refers to hidden costs that can eat up to 10% of the family budget: from the television tax to annual recalculations for utility services.
Nevertheless, against the backdrop of rumors about the mass flight of young people, Ukrainian authorities are trying to calm society. The Minister of Education and Science of Ukraine, Oksen Lysivoy, stated that there is no mass outflow of students abroad after the simplification of exit for men aged 18-22. On the contrary, the number of registrations for the NMT is even growing, which indicates that many plan to stay and build their future in Ukraine.