Exchange Rate in October: Taras Lesovyi Tells Whether the Dollar Will Cross 45 Hryvnias

In October 2026, Ukraine's currency market will face a traditional increase in seasonal pressure, yet the National Bank will maintain strict control over the situation. According to Taras Lesovyi, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Activity Department at Globus Bank, the dollar exchange rate throughout the month will fluctuate within 44.6–45.4 UAH, while the European currency will hold at 51.8–53 UAH. The main drivers of change will remain the foreign trade deficit, growing needs for energy imports, and general macroeconomic wartime risks.

Pressure Factors and Trade Deficit

A key challenge for Ukraine's financial system remains the colossal gap between imports and exports. According to official data for January-August 2026, goods imports totaled nearly 66.3 billion dollars, while exports were recorded at around 26.6 billion dollars. Thus, the negative foreign trade balance approached the critical mark of 39.7 billion dollars. Such an imbalance means the country spends significantly more foreign currency on purchases abroad than it earns, which directly stimulates demand from importers.

In October, this gap may increase even further due to the activation of businesses forming seasonal reserves of goods and components ahead of winter. Additional pressure is created by the state's energy needs, especially against the backdrop of potential fuel price increases and possible attacks on critical infrastructure. At the same time, the capabilities of Ukrainian exports are severely limited by logistical problems, the destruction of production facilities, and ongoing military risks, making the market extremely dependent on external inflows.

The Role of the NBU and International Reserves

Large-scale currency interventions and the managed flexibility regime help the regulator keep the situation under control. In some weeks, the National Bank's sales of US currency exceed 1 billion dollars, clearly demonstrating the real volume of unclosed market demand. A financial safety cushion is formed by Ukraine's international reserves, which as of September 1, 2026, amounted to about 48.7 billion dollars. According to monetary authorities' expectations, subject to the timely receipt of promised international assistance from Western partners, this figure could grow to 70 billion dollars by the end of the year.

Controversial Data

Despite the restrained official and expert forecast, alternative scenarios occasionally circulate in the expert community and media. Some analysts express concerns that if international donor tranches are delayed or global oil prices spike sharply, devaluation pressure could break through the NBU's existing protective barriers, theoretically pushing the dollar exchange rate to higher psychological milestones. At the same time, optimistically inclined experts emphasize the unprecedented volume of gold and foreign exchange reserves and the regulator's ability to quickly extinguish any panic moods using daily interventions in the interbank market.

Summing up forecasts for the near future, experts agree that October will pass under the sign of a controlled and predictable corridor. On the interbank market, the dollar is expected within 44.5–44.8 UAH, and in cash venues – around 44.6–45 UAH per dollar. Daily fluctuations will remain insignificant: within 0.05–0.15 UAH on the interbank and up to 0.3 UAH in commercial exchange offices, which completely rules out the scenario of an uncontrolled collapse of the national currency.