The Ukrainian gas market is showing an unprecedented price gap with Europe: as of September 14, 2026, gas for October delivery averaged 21,750 hryvnias per thousand cubic meters in Ukraine, equivalent to about €33 per MWh excluding VAT. On the Dutch TTF hub, the price of October resources reached €84 per MWh. As a result, the price gap exceeded €50 per MWh — the highest figure since late 2022, when the full-scale military conflict began. The calculations are provided by the industry portal ExPro, as cited by RBC-Ukraine.
The Mechanics of the Price Gap: Isolation and Export Ban
According to ExPro's assessment, the main reason for such a significant discrepancy is the de facto isolation of the Ukrainian gas market from the European one. Natural gas imports from Europe are virtually absent and economically unviable due to high prices on European hubs. At the same time, gas exports have remained banned since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, when the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine introduced zero quotas on exports of Ukrainian-origin natural gas. This double blockage — the inability to import for economic reasons and the regulatory ban on exports — creates a persistent surplus of gas in the commercial segment of the domestic market.
Opposite Market Conditions: Deficit in Europe, Surplus in Ukraine
The situation on the two markets is currently diametrically opposed. Europe needs additional volumes of gas ahead of the heating season to fill its storage facilities, but at present they are only 68% full, which is below the average level for the same period. This puts upward pressure on prices. In Ukraine, by contrast, gas supply in the commercial segment exceeds current demand, which is shrinking due to Russian strikes on industrial infrastructure. The decline in industrial consumption is creating a structural surplus of the resource that cannot be exported to external markets due to the ongoing ban.
Expert Assessment and Systemic Consequences
Gas industry expert Mykhailo Svyshchenko notes that the export closure has left the Ukrainian gas market isolated from the European one, turning it into a closed system with internal overproduction. The export ban, introduced in early 2022 as an energy security measure, has — in the context of the ongoing conflict and declining domestic demand — transformed from a protective instrument into a factor intensifying price pressure on domestic consumers. The 2.5-fold gap between the Ukrainian and European gas price not only reflects a market imbalance but also points to structural constraints that have persisted for four consecutive years.
Outlook: What Will Happen to Prices
Without a change in the export regulatory regime and a recovery in industrial consumption, the price gap will, by ExPro's logic, persist or even widen ahead of the winter season. For Ukraine, this means that domestic gas prices remain significantly lower than European ones, which on the one hand supports the competitiveness of domestic industry, while on the other limits the state's ability to use gas as an export resource. For Europe, by contrast, the inability to import Ukrainian gas strengthens dependence on alternative suppliers and pushes TTF prices toward further growth in the autumn-winter period.
