The Ukrainian fuel market is experiencing a new wave of price shock. Over the last ten days, the cost of gasoline and diesel at gas stations has risen by several to fifteen hryvnias per liter. Experts warn: if current trends persist, fuel prices may soon cross the psychological threshold of 100 hryvnias.

New realities at gas stations: how much a liter costs now

Monitoring of leading gas station networks (OKKO, WOG, SOCAR, "Ukrnafta") has shown that the price increase has affected all fuel categories. As of Wednesday morning, July 29, the market situation looks as follows:

  • OKKO and WOG: regular gasoline A-95 costs 82.90–83.50 UAH/l, diesel fuel (DF) — 90.90–91.80 UAH/l. Premium grades reach 93.90–94.80 UAH/l, and gas — 42.90–44.50 UAH/l.
  • SOCAR: prices here are higher. A-95 is offered at 85.40 UAH/l, and branded diesel fuel has crossed the 95.90 UAH/l mark.
  • "Ukrnafta": the state network offers the most affordable prices. A-92 costs 77.90 UAH/l, A-95 — 79.90 UAH/l, and diesel can be found from 86.90 UAH/l.

Global reasons: from the Middle East to Europe

The sharp price surge is due to a combination of factors, ranging from geopolitical tension to logistical problems. The resumption of hostilities between the US and Iran, as well as the activity of Yemeni Houthis, has effectively paralyzed shipping in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This led to the global price of Brent crude oil exceeding $100 per barrel for the first time since May on July 23.

However, even though quotes on the London ICE exchange later retreated to $83.7, Ukrainian drivers will not feel this decrease yet. Vladimir Omelchenko, Director of Energy Programs at the Razumkov Centre, explains the situation by noting that Ukraine does not buy crude oil, but finished petroleum products, whose cost is formed at European hubs.

"Ukraine depends on the EU petroleum products market, where the main indicator is Platts. The cost of petroleum products in the European market grew much faster than oil prices on global exchanges. Accordingly, Ukrainian traders bought resources at significantly inflated prices," Omelchenko noted.

Shortage of capacity and "ant logistics"

To geopolitics, a crisis of refining capacity in Europe itself has been added. Dmitry Leushkin, Founder and General Director of Prime Group, notes that there is no global shortage of crude oil, but there is an acute shortage of gasoline and diesel directly.

Previously, Europe covered seasonal demand by purchasing fuel from India, Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, or Turkey. Now these channels are blocked: Greek refining depends on Turkey, which is buying Russian resources, and Indian refineries are loaded with Russian oil. As a result, Europe is left without additional volumes of free fuel.

"It is quite difficult for us to buy additional resources. We are looking for it in small batches, so now "ant logistics" by tankers to Romania is returning — this hasn't happened in two years," Leushkin emphasized.

Legislative barriers and farmer panic buying

An additional factor in the price increase is Ukrainian legislation. From July 1, 2026, the country will require the sale of fuel with a bioethanol content of at least 10% (E-10). The amount of E-10 resource on the market is four times less than grades E0, E5, and E15, which significantly narrows import opportunities.

The most alarming signal is the anomalous gap between wholesale and retail prices for diesel. At oil depots, the wholesale price reaches 90–93 UAH/l (in the east — up to 95 UAH/l), while at some gas stations, the retail price is held at the level of 85–86 UAH/l. This has provoked panic demand: farmers, seeing high wholesale prices on the eve of the harvest, are massively buying fuel at retail, using barrels and eurocubes. Some gas stations have already temporarily exhausted their stocks.

Forecast: what drivers can expect

Experts warn that the current imbalance creates a colossal potential for further price increases. Vladimir Omelchenko forecasts that within the next one to two weeks, average diesel prices may rise to 90–92 hryvnias. Retail prices for gasoline will also add 4–5 hryvnias, as the current margin does not cover the networks' expenses.

Dmitry Leushkin gives an even more alarming forecast: diesel prices are already heading towards 95 UAH/l, and the market may reach 100 hryvnias in the near future.