Drivers in Ukraine have already started noticing changes at gas stations: fuel prices are going down. This is a direct consequence of global events — peace agreements between the US and Iran, which led to a sharp drop in global oil prices. However, experts warn: retail networks may not rush to fully reflect these changes on cash registers.
The global market reacts instantly
The situation in Ukraine's fuel market depends directly on the global context. According to experts, oil has become cheaper, falling from $93 to $77 per barrel. This drop has already been reflected in European oil product quotes and is beginning to affect the Ukrainian market.
Alexander Sirenko, Director of the consulting company "NaftoRynok", notes that the market is already reacting to news of the peace agreement. However, the most noticeable price reduction is happening in the wholesale segment. Retail prices are falling more slowly — daily or every other day by about one hryvnia, but there is still no full synchronization with external markets.
As an example, the expert cites diesel fuel: at the border, it is already offered at 61.80 UAH per liter, while at some gas stations inside the country, the price still exceeds 80 hryvnias.
The Strait of Hormuz factor
A key factor in the further decline in prices will be not only the agreement itself but also the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Currently, about 10% of raw materials are not reaching the global market. If tanker traffic is fully resumed, accumulated oil volumes will significantly increase supply.
According to the analytical company Kpler, the resumption of shipping could release about 93 million barrels of oil blocked in the Persian Gulf. In addition, the lifting of US restrictions on Iranian oil exports could bring another 72 million barrels to the market.
"Such a drop will be painful for those working in this market, but very favorable for the end consumer," Sirenko emphasized.
History repeats itself: the 2022 experience
Despite positive forecasts, experts warn that Ukrainian gas station networks may not rush to quickly lower prices. The situation could repeat the summer of 2022, when the wholesale market had already reacted to the price drop, while retail prices remained virtually unchanged for a long time.
A benchmark for the market could be the state-owned "Ukrnafta", which has already lowered fuel prices by two hryvnias at once, while most private networks limited themselves to a reduction of about one hryvnia.
Opinions of regulators and analysts
Sergey Kuyun, Director of the A-95 Consulting Group, confirmed that the trend towards cheaper fuel has already emerged. According to him, in just the last month, diesel has become 5–6 hryvnias cheaper per liter, and many networks are already selling it for less than 80 hryvnias.
Pavlo Kyrylenko, Chairman of the Antimonopoly Committee, also noted that there are all grounds for further price reductions. Global oil indices have fallen by about 17%, which is a direct signal to revise fuel costs. Diesel fuel has become 1–3 hryvnias cheaper over the last week, while gasoline is showing less dynamics so far.