In July, the Ukrainian currency is likely to continue experiencing moderate pressure, although experts do not forecast sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate. The main market drivers will remain the same: currency demand, the volume of international financing, inflation expectations, and the geopolitical situation.

This forecast was voiced by Taras Lesovoy, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Activities Department of Globus Bank, in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.

Corridors for the Dollar and Euro

The base scenario for July assumes that the US dollar exchange rate will fluctuate in the range of 44.5 to 45.5 hryvnias. The expert emphasizes that, despite the influence of military and economic factors, there are currently no grounds for chaotic currency movements.

The current policy of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) is described as a regime of "managed flexibility." This means that the regulator allows the exchange rate to react to market changes but simultaneously curbs sharp and unpredictable fluctuations. An additional benchmark is the draft state budget for 2026, where the weighted average dollar rate is set at 45.7 UAH. According to Lesovoy, this confirms that movement around 45 hryvnias corresponds to the state's macroeconomic expectations.

The forecast for the euro is less unambiguous. It is expected that the European currency will trade within the range of 51–53 hryvnias. This rate is influenced by two factors: the hryvnia-to-dollar ratio within the country and the international euro/dollar pair. If the latter remains in the range of 1.14–1.18, a significant exit of the euro from the forecast corridor will not occur.

Four Factors Determining the Market

Taras Lesovoy highlighted four key factors that will dictate the situation in the currency market throughout July:

  • Importer demand: Companies purchasing fuel, energy equipment, and other critically important goods form a significant portion of currency demand.
  • International financing: Regular fund inflows from partners support the state budget, NBU reserves, and overall macro-financial stability.
  • Inflation expectations: If businesses and the population expect a rapid rise in prices, this stimulates demand for currency as a tool for preserving savings.
  • Military risks: Attacks on critical infrastructure, energy, or logistics remain the most unpredictable factor capable of quickly changing market sentiment.

Growth Scenarios and Alternatives for Depositors

The expert believes that scenarios with the dollar rising to 47 or even 50 hryvnias in July currently lack sufficient economic basis. Such a development is possible only with the simultaneous deterioration of several key factors: financing problems, a sharp rise in currency demand, fuel price hikes, and a significant escalation of the security situation. At present, this scenario is assessed as hypothetical.

Regarding savings, Lesovoy advises not to rely solely on foreign currency. According to him, hryvnia deposits at rates of 14–17.5% per annum, as well as Internal State Loan Bonds (OVGZ) due to tax advantages, remain a competitive alternative to passive dollar storage.

Forecast for the Coming Week

Next week, the currency market, according to the expert's forecast, will remain relatively calm. Expected ranges:

  • Interbank: dollar — 44.6–45.25 UAH, euro — 51–52.5 UAH.
  • Cash market: dollar — 44.5–45.2 UAH, euro — 51–52.5 UAH.

Average weekly deviations will likely not exceed 1–1.5% of the starting values, and the difference between interbank and cash market rates will remain minimal.

Note: This material is prepared for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Investments involve risk, including the possibility of total loss of capital. Before making financial decisions, it is recommended to consult a licensed advisor.