June 2026 became the month when the inflationary process in Ukraine showed signs of slowing down for the first time in recent times. According to the National Bank, annual inflation fell to 7.2%, and on a monthly basis, prices even decreased slightly — by 0.1%. However, behind this temporary lull lies a worrying trend: core inflation, reflecting long-term price trends, accelerated to 8.1%.

Why have prices dropped for now?

The decline in monthly inflation was the result of a temporary easing of price pressure in certain sectors. Some products have become more affordable for consumers, allowing family budgets to catch their breath a little. But this does not mean the problem is solved — on the contrary, it has only been postponed.

What is pushing prices up?

The National Bank explains the rise in core inflation with three key factors:

  • Increased business spending on wages — companies are forced to raise salaries to retain staff in conditions of labor shortage.
  • Rising electricity costs — tariffs continue to grow, which directly affects the cost of goods.
  • Rising fuel prices — logistics and production are becoming more expensive, which inevitably gets passed on to the end consumer.

What to expect in the coming months?

The National Bank warns: price pressure will begin to intensify again. The main drivers of growth will be:

  • Revision of water tariffs — utilities will become more expensive for most citizens.
  • Increase in public transport fares — especially in large cities where transport infrastructure requires modernization.
  • Further growth in wage costs — if businesses continue to increase the payroll fund, this will push prices up.

When to expect official forecasts?

The updated macroeconomic forecast of the National Bank will be presented on July 30, 2026. And on August 6, a detailed Inflation Report will be published, which will reveal all the details of the current situation and give recommendations for price stabilization.

For now, citizens should be prepared for the fact that the temporary price drop is just a pause before a new round of growth. Family budget planning should take into account not only today's figures, but also tomorrow's risks.