The situation on the border with Belarus remains a subject of close attention for Ukrainian security forces. Andriy Demchenko, a representative of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, commented on the current situation, debunking rumors of large-scale preparations for a ground invasion by Russia's ally.
No Signs of a Large-Scale Attack
According to Demchenko, border guards are not detecting concentrations of Russian troops on the border with Belarus in numbers that would be necessary for a full-scale attack on Ukraine. In a statement conveyed to RBK-Ukraine, the expert clarified that, despite individual pauses in activity, the overall picture does not indicate preparations for an assault.
However, this does not mean the threat has disappeared. Demchenko noted that Russia continues to exert pressure on Minsk, attempting to force the Belarusian regime to join the war with its own forces. The situation remains tense, and vigilance at the border does not waver for a second.
New Tactics: Belarus as a Launchpad for Drones
While a ground invasion has not yet been confirmed, the nature of air attacks has undergone changes. The Border Guard Service has recorded an increase in the use of Belarusian territory to launch unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Most drones intended for mass strikes on Ukraine now enter via Belarus.
This tactic allows Russian forces to change attack vectors, entering Ukrainian airspace through the Kyiv and Zhytomyr regions. Over the past few weeks, the number of such incidents has noticeably increased, indicating a shift in strategy in the air war.
Political Pressure and False Accusations
Volodymyr Zelenskyy previously stated that Russia is striving to further drag Belarus into the conflict, considering plans for operations both south and north of Belarusian territory. This creates risks not only for Ukraine but also potentially for NATO countries.
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, confirmed that the threat from Belarus remains real. Meanwhile, the regime of Alexander Lukashenko continues to accuse Ukraine of drone attacks, although the factual picture says the opposite: it is Russian drones that are using Belarusian airspace to bypass Ukrainian air defenses.
Scaling Up Drone Production
The backdrop for these events is Moscow's plans to increase arms production. Russia plans to manufacture 7.3 million first-person view drones by 2026. Such a scale of production points to long-term intentions to wage a war of attrition, using automated systems to strike critical infrastructure and military targets.
Opinion of Military Experts
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in its analytical reports also pointed out the absence of signs that Belarusian troops are ready for a ground invasion. However, experts warn of the possibility of attacks on logistical routes, such as the Kyiv-Chop highway and supply routes from Poland, which could seriously hit Ukraine's economy.
Thus, while the threat of a ground invasion remains at the level of a potential scenario, the real danger comes from the evolution of the air war, where Belarus is increasingly used as a launchpad for Russian drones.