Ahead of its scheduled November initial public offering (IPO), institutional investors have made it clear to Anthropic’s management and financial advisors that the company should be valued in the $1.5–$1.6 trillion range. This is significantly lower than the roughly $2 trillion figure discussed in recent months. The Claude model developer has not yet finalized its target valuation or the volume of shares it plans to offer for sale, but the shift in market expectations already reflects a noticeable cooling of sentiment around the most expensive AI asset of the decade.
Why Investors Lowered the Bar
According to market participants, a combination of factors influenced the downward revision: general stock market volatility, concerns over excessive capital concentration in the artificial intelligence sector, and negative public backlash against data center construction. An additional restraining element remains the uncertainty surrounding when major tech players on the scale of Amazon and Meta will generate real profits from AI technologies. Even after the October "investor day," some market participants expressed the view that a fair valuation of the company is closer to $1.5 trillion, and this thesis has now gained widespread support.
Tech Sector Crash as a Backdrop for the Offering
The past week was marked by a sharp decline in technology stocks, further dampening investor appetite for expensive IPOs. Disappointing financial results from Alphabet and Intel led to double-digit drops in their shares: the former reported slowing search ad revenue growth, while the latter noted a prolonged PC sales slump. Even Amazon's revenue came in below analyst forecasts. Against this backdrop, going public with an inflated starting valuation is perceived as an increased risk for all offering participants.
First-Day Trading Strategy
At the same time, some investors express confidence in Anthropic Chief Financial Officer Krishna Rao, believing he will choose a conservative starting valuation to ensure share price growth on the very first day of trading. According to their projections, even with a public debut at a valuation of around $1.5 trillion, the shares could climb to $2 trillion by the end of the first day — similar to the SpaceX IPO, whose stock gained 30% on its first trading day. Unlike SpaceX, which set a fixed share price, Anthropic intends to take the traditional route and offer investors a price range.
Financial Metrics and Liabilities
Anthropic’s third-quarter revenue reached $17 billion, compared to $11.6 billion in the previous quarter. The company could have earned another $600 million, but was forced to lower prices due to the release of new models and contract discounts. Meanwhile, total purchasing and lease commitments stand at $895.4 billion: of this, $447.5 billion is payable by the end of 2030, with the bulk falling between 2031 and 2045. Anthropic’s public debut will serve as a key benchmark for the entire sector — the Claude developer's success will pave the way to the public market for numerous other AI companies.
A series of investor meetings will kick off next week, with the offering itself scheduled for the week preceding Thanksgiving in the US, which falls on November 26 this year. During the roadshow, the company will outline its target valuation, the number of shares for sale, and the planned price range. Note: Meta is included in the list of public associations and religious organizations for which a court has adopted a legally binding decision on liquidation or prohibition of activities on the grounds provided for by Federal Law No. 114-FZ "On Counteracting Extremist Activity."
