Against the backdrop of escalating hostilities and recent strikes by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Russian targets, Moscow has sharply intensified its information campaign, claiming decisive advances in the Donbas. The main targets of the Russian offensive in the Donetsk region remain the strategically important cities of Konstantynivka and Lyman, which experts call key elements of the Ukrainian defensive system in the region.
"Penetration", not "advance"
In recent days, the Russian news agency TASS reported the establishment of control over the eastern part of Konstantynivka. However, independent analysts seriously question these claims. The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) notes that the situation around the city remains uncertain.
Kateryna Stepanenko, head of the Russian group at ISW, commented on the situation, pointing out the difference between tactical actions and actual control of the territory:
"This is penetration, not an advance. These are groups, possibly of one or two Russian servicemen, occupying individual positions in the city".
In the analyst's opinion, such small groups may temporarily occupy individual areas, but this does not indicate consolidation on the territory or the establishment of full control. Some areas around Konstantynivka remain a "gray zone" where neither side has full dominance.
Complex situation on the front
Ukrainian military also admit the tension in this sector. Press officer of the 24th Separate Mechanized Brigade Kostiantyn Melnykov reported that in recent weeks Russia has significantly increased the intensity of airstrikes in the Konstantynivka area. Nevertheless, Ukrainian forces continue to hold back the offensive and, according to them, inflict significant losses on the enemy.
Deputy Commander of the 19th Army Corps of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Yurii Madiar refuted claims about the imminent fall of the city. He stated that Ukrainian units are clearing areas in the south of Konstantynivka and continue to push Russian forces out of individual parts of the city.
Information war and "digital" victories
ISW analysts believe that the intensification of Moscow's claims of victories on the front is directly related to the need to demonstrate success after a series of strikes by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Russian military and logistical targets. According to Stepanenko, the Kremlin is trying to create an impression of victory even where goals have not yet been achieved.
Experts paid special attention to the materials used by the Russian Ministry of Defense to confirm their words. In particular, a video was published allegedly showing the raising of the Russian flag in Lyman. ISW stated that they could not verify the authenticity of the video and expressed the opinion that the video material could have been processed using artificial intelligence.
Realism of plans to capture Donbas
Messages are circulating in the Russian information space about a possible task to fully capture Donbas by September. However, experts consider such a scenario unlikely. According to CNN, the Kremlin is trying to declare "informational victories" to hide vulnerabilities in its strategy. For now, the reality on the ground differs from optimistic reports: instead of capturing cities, there is a struggle for individual districts and positions.