Following an unsuccessful attempt to break through in Sloviansk, the Russian command redirected its main efforts to another key node in the Donetsk region — Konstantynivka. This city has become the main target of the Russian Federation's spring-summer offensive campaign in 2026, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), cited by RBC-Ukraine.
Large-scale offensive by two groupings
Analysts note that to capture Konstantynivka, Moscow has deployed elements of several armies, reinforcing its assault units. According to data obtained by Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets on June 10, two large enemy tactical groups — "Bakhmut" and "Dzerzhynsk" (Toretsk) — are simultaneously storming the city. Currently, their forward units are approximately two kilometers apart.
The "Bakhmut" tactical group advanced from Stupochky through Novodmytrivka, capturing its southern part. Russian forces have already entered the northeastern part of Konstantynivka and advanced along the T-0504 highway (Pokrovsk — Bakhmut) to the railway station.
The second striking force — the "Dzerzhynsk" group — advanced from the direction of Iliynivka, encircling areas from the northwestern to the southwestern outskirts of the city. According to observers, this group managed to achieve a tactical breakthrough in the western part of Konstantynivka.
Critical defense points
Despite active advances, Russian troops have not yet managed to capture the Konstantynivka railway station itself. In addition, Ukrainian forces successfully cleared the settlement of Dolyha Bulka to the southwest of the city, driving out Russian sabotage-reconnaissance groups.
Analyst forecast and strategic balance
ISW analysts warn that Russian troops will likely continue to penetrate deeper into Konstantynivka and may be able to establish a foothold in certain areas of the city during the summer of 2026. However, experts emphasize that this advance will come at a huge cost in losses to the occupiers, and an operational success on the scale of the entire so-called "Fortress Belt" is unlikely.
The situation on the front remains tense, but the Ukrainian command is demonstrating the ability to hold strategic positions. According to the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrsky, in May the Defense Forces liberated 100 square kilometers more territory than they lost. Since the beginning of the year, the total balance of liberated territories has exceeded 600 sq. km.
Diplomatic context
Meanwhile, Ukraine's political leadership is betting on international support. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that June and July could be decisive months in the war. According to him, decisions made at EU, G7, and NATO summits could radically affect the diplomatic track and the conditions for a possible ceasefire.