French political life has entered a decisive phase. Marine Le Pen, the informal leader of the right-wing populist movement "National Rally," has declared her intention to run for the highest state office for the fourth time. However, her path to the Élysée Palace is blocked by a judicial ban, and all attention is now focused on the upcoming appellate ruling.
The campaign's fate will be decided on July 7
The key date for French politics is July 7. On this day, the appellate court will deliver its verdict on the case involving Marine Le Pen and her party. This decision will directly determine whether the politician can realize her presidential ambitions or will be forced to pass the leadership baton.
Previously, on March 31, the court found the far-right leader guilty of embezzling European funds intended to finance party activities. The sentence was severe: four years in prison and a lifetime ban from holding public office. The prosecution, presenting charges on February 3, had demanded a five-year disqualification period and four years of imprisonment for Le Pen, with one year to be served in actual custody.
Condition for freedom: refusal of an electronic ankle monitor
Marine Le Pen has clearly outlined her conditions for participating in the race. On Wednesday, July 1, she emphasized that she does not intend to conduct a campaign while tethered to an electronic ankle monitor.
"If you are a presidential candidate, you must be absolutely free to move. I cannot expect a judge to allow me to go to a meeting or to the market," the politician argued her position.
Despite legal obstacles, Le Pen expressed confidence that she would continue to fight for her ideas. She insists that restrictions on movement make it impossible to conduct a full-fledged presidential campaign.
Plan B and geopolitical promises
In the event that the appellate court does not lift the ban on running, the "National Rally" already has a plan of action. Le Pen is prepared to step aside for the party's young official leader, Jordan Bardella, giving him the chance to lead the campaign.
If the obstacles are removed and Le Pen wins the election, she promises radical changes in foreign policy. In particular, she has pledged to withdraw France from NATO's integrated military command, which would be a significant event for all of Europe.
External interference and reaction
In the run-up to the election, Le Pen's party faced an unexpected turn in the diplomatic sphere. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs publicly supported the "National Rally." However, Marine Le Pen herself called this gesture interference in France's internal affairs, which came as a surprise to many observers.
Against this backdrop, it is worth noting that the far-right party has already experienced difficulties with influence in the legislative branch: after the 2024 elections, the "National Rally" failed to secure any key positions in the National Assembly. Now the bet is on the presidential race, where the court's decision will be the decisive factor.
