The self-proclaimed president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, publicly assured that Minsk has no plans to attack neighboring states. Speaking to the military leadership, he attempted to allay concerns about possible aggressive steps by Belarus, stating that the republic "will never be the first to attack." The statement came against the backdrop of the ongoing deployment of Russian military facilities on Belarusian territory and the continuing tensions surrounding the Ukrainian conflict.
"Pragmatists" and "monsters on the perimeter"
Justifying his position, Lukashenko resorted to pragmatic logic: in his words, an attack on any of its neighbors would condemn Belarus to destruction. "We are pragmatists. We understand that if we, say, attack any of our neighbors, it would be equivalent to death. We will not be able to win a conflict with the 'monsters' located on the perimeter. So why start a war?" — Ukrainian publication RBC quotes his words. At the same time, he emphasized that the leadership is obliged to ensure the safety of the population and protect "every millimeter" of its land, "even if it costs lives."
Readiness to deploy: Khrenin's response
During the meeting with the military, Lukashenko directly asked Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin about the state of the troop command system in the event of the start of hostilities. To the question "What if there is a war?" the head of the Defense Ministry replied: "We are ready to deploy." According to Khrenin, the existing system allows simultaneous control of the armed forces, state bodies, and the civilian sector. "The communications system ensures resilience, secrecy, and reliability. What we have now — five years ago we could only dream of," the minister added, emphasizing the modernization of the command infrastructure.
Contradictory data
Lukashenko's words about "pragmatism" and the rejection of aggression stand in notable contradiction to a number of facts and assessments recorded in the same time window. On the one hand, the Ukrainian Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR) states that there are no signs of Minsk preparing to enter the war against Ukraine. On the other hand, units of the Russian Federation's 101st Missile Brigade are deployed on Belarusian territory, armed with the "Oreshnik" ballistic missile. Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, for her part, warns that Russia may use Belarusian territory to escalate tensions and provoke NATO countries. Thus, the public rhetoric of "we will not attack" coexists with the actual presence of strategic missile weapons and statements of "full readiness to deploy," creating an ambiguous picture of Minsk's intentions.
Broader context: mobilization backdrop
Earlier, according to Ukrainian publication Focus, Lukashenko, in conversation with the military, touched on the topic of mobilization, stating that "the army needs to be shaken up." These statements, along with the confirmed readiness of the troop command system to deploy, indicate that, despite public assurances of peaceful intentions, Belarus's military infrastructure continues to remain in a state of heightened readiness. For neighbors — Ukraine, the Baltic states, and NATO — the combination of the words "we will not attack" with the actual deployment of Russian missile potential on Belarusian territory remains a key factor in defense policy planning.
