The Ukrainian retail market is on the verge of a massive transformation. Experts predict that the final map of retail will be drawn only after the end of hostilities. Ahead lies a wave of acquisitions and consolidation that will determine the new leaders of the industry.
According to an analysis by RBC-Ukraine, three possible scenarios will emerge in the next 2–3 years. The winners will differ in each, but one thing remains unchanged: a market reshuffle is inevitable.
Triopoly vs. regional players
One of the most likely scenarios is the crystallization of the market around three dominant mass-market players: ATB, Fozzy Group, and Novus. These chains will take leading positions, creating a stable triopoly.
Other players will survive only thanks to geographical or format specialization — where the entry of large chains is unprofitable. However, a full oligopoly will not occur, assures Anna Anisimova, Commercial Director of GDS.
Regional leaders: who will stand firm?
Among regional players, the "Semy" and "Blyzhenko" chains stand out. The former manages more than 500 stores and in 2025 showed revenue of 7.94 billion UAH with a growth of 54%. The latter — more than 300 points and revenue of 8.4 billion UAH.
Their future depends on how deeply national chains penetrate their regions. If major players strengthen their presence, regional chains may come under pressure.
European challenge: Lidl, Biedronka, Carrefour
If Ukraine joins the EU, international retailers such as Lidl, Biedronka, or Carrefour may enter the market. This will create a new wave of competition, where current national leaders themselves may become targets of acquisition or be forced to sharply increase efficiency.
Access to cheap European capital will give foreign chains a significant advantage. National players will have to adapt or risk losing market share.
Shift in consumer flows
After the end of the war and the return of Ukrainians from migration, consumer flows may shift again to the east and center of the country. Chains that have bet exclusively on western regions will face the need to reorient.
The starting advantage will be with those who have maintained a presence across the country — primarily ATB and Fozzy Group. Their geographical diversification will become a key factor of resilience.
Consolidation will continue
In any of the three scenarios, consolidation will not stop — it will only take on new forms. The question is not whether a reshuffle will take place, but who will end up on which side of the deal.
The Ukrainian retail market is ready for change. Who will survive, who will become the leader, and who will leave — time will tell. But one thing is clear: the era of stability is over. The time for big changes has come.
