The political landscape of France has undergone fundamental changes. Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally party, whose participation in the 2027 presidential race was previously in question, has officially returned to the electoral fray. A combination of legal rulings and fresh sociological data indicates that the far-right politician is not just participating in the elections but is considered an outright favorite.

The judicial turn: from ban to freedom of choice

The key factor determining Le Pen's return to the political arena was the verdict of the Paris Court of Appeal. Previously, the court of first instance issued a ruling that effectively barred the leader of the National Rally from participating in the elections: a five-year ban on holding public office with immediate effect.

However, the appellate court reviewed the case regarding the misuse of European Parliament funds, significantly mitigating the sentence:

  • The ban on holding elected office was reduced to 45 months, of which 30 months are suspended.
  • The mandatory restriction period was set at 15 months. Since sufficient time has passed since the initial verdict, this disqualification is considered fully served.
  • The main prison sentence was reduced to three years (two years suspended, one year with electronic monitoring).

It is important to note that Marine Le Pen's defense has already filed an appeal with the Court of Cassation of France. According to the law, this decision suspends the execution of the sentence, including the use of an electronic ankle monitor, until the final consideration of the case. The politician herself confirmed on the TF1 channel that formal obstacles to her campaign have been removed.

The appellate judges justified the mitigation of the sentence by the need to uphold the principle of "freedom of voter choice," effectively handing the decision on France's political future to the citizens.

Sociological breakthrough: victory over the "wall"

The legal unblocking of the candidacy coincided with a rise in Marine Le Pen's popularity. According to aggregated poll data published in July 2026, the leader of the National Rally demonstrates a steady lead.

In the first round of the elections, Le Pen is projected to consolidate between 34% and 35% of the vote. This gives her a significant lead over her nearest competitors, including representatives of the left-wing bloc (LFI and Socialists), whose figures do not exceed 18% and do not allow them to count on reaching the final.

The battle in the second round: Le Pen vs. Philippe

The most indicative indicator of changing sentiments is the modeling of the second round. It was traditionally believed that the French electorate could block the far-right in the final vote. However, current simulations are shattering this stereotype.

In a hypothetical showdown with former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe (leader of the Horizons party), who holds second place with a result of 20–22% in the first round, Marine Le Pen emerges victorious:

  • Marine Le Pen: 51%
  • Édouard Philippe: 49%

This result indicates that the politician has moved beyond her traditional electoral ghetto, managing to attract votes from broader layers of society. The centrist bloc, represented by Philippe, turns out to be the only possible opponent capable of reaching the second round, but even in this scenario, the chances of victory remain with the National Rally.

Conclusions and prospects

The situation on the French political arena by 2027 is shaping up in favor of the right wing. The legal rehabilitation of Marine Le Pen, backed by a verdict prioritizing democratic choice, and high approval ratings create unique conditions for her potential election. Opponents are forced to rethink their strategies, as the familiar scenarios of blocking the far-right during voting seem to have stopped working.