The policy of "strategic partnership" with Moscow could turn into a catastrophe for the Belarusian leadership. Permanent Representative of Ukraine to the UN Andriy Melnyk, during a Security Council meeting, voiced a harsh forecast: any active participation of Belarus in the war on the side of Russia will lead to the collapse of Alexander Lukashenko's regime.
Territory of Aggression and the Threat of Retaliation
The Kyiv diplomat did not resort to euphemisms. According to him, Minsk has already de facto turned its country into a staging ground for Russian aggression, providing Moscow with access to military infrastructure and airspace. The situation is exacerbated by joint military exercises and the deployment of modern missile systems on Belarusian soil.
Melnyk clearly marked the red line: in the event of an invasion from the north, Ukraine will act within the framework of Article 51 of the UN Charter, guaranteeing the right to self-defense. The response will be immediate and merciless.
"Any attack from the north will provoke a decisive response, and the regime in Minsk will face destructive consequences," stated the Ukrainian permanent representative. The essence of the warning is simple: an attempt to get involved in the war could cost Lukashenko his power and life.
Different Scenarios of Escalation
Despite loud statements, experts assess the real risks differently. Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) note that at the moment there are no signs of preparation for a full-scale ground invasion by the Belarusian army.
However, the threat remains in a hybrid format. According to intelligence data, Russia may use Belarusian territory to organize drone attacks on critical logistics hubs, specifically the M-06 "Kyiv-Chop" highway, which serves as an "artery" for aid deliveries from Europe.
Ukraine is calling on the international community to increase pressure on Minsk to prevent new escalation, which could prove fatal for the Belarusian leadership.
