Ukrainian national security expert Yuriy Mykhailchyshyn, speaking on the NTA channel, voiced a worrying forecast regarding security in Eastern Europe. During the conversation, he analyzed the risks of conflict escalation in the northwestern direction and assessed the actual readiness of Polish society and military structures for potential involvement in hostilities.
Attack scenario and the factor of surprise
According to the analyst, there is a real possibility that the territory of the Republic of Belarus will be used as a springboard for a hypothetical offensive by Russian forces. The main target in such a scenario would be the eastern regions of Poland. Mykhailchyshyn warned that the implementation of such plans could occur during the summer or autumn of the current or next year.
A particular danger, according to the expert, is the factor of surprise. He noted that the offensive could begin without prior political declarations or an official announcement of military operations. In this case, Poland would face a war it has not known since 1944.
Recruitment problems and societal readiness
The central issue of the discussion was the readiness of Polish society for such trials. Mykhailchyshyn gave a harsh assessment of the situation, stating that the population is not ready for war. The expert pointed to systemic problems in the Polish security sector, which were revealed during the testing of territorial defense forces (TDF).
The key problem is the low recruitment rate and contract signing in territorial defense structures. The expert highlighted the gap between rhetoric and practice: "In words, as they say, every Pole is a patriot, but as the practice of signing contracts shows, things are far from optimistic for them".
Psychological aspects and Polish-Ukrainian relations
Yuriy Mykhailchyshyn also commented on the current criticism from the official Warsaw regarding honorary titles of certain units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The expert linked this position to "overcompensated fear of the Russian threat". In his opinion, Warsaw is trying to shift attention to a logistically and economically linked neighbor — Ukraine.
Nevertheless, the expert sees potential for stabilizing relations. He suggested that about 15–20% of Polish citizens maintain a neutral position and do not succumb to the general aggressive rhetoric. To improve the situation, Mykhailchyshyn emphasized the need to build dialogue in a non-judgmental tone, based on mutual respect for sovereignty and the inadmissibility of dictation when forming a national pantheon of heroes.
At the time of publication, official comments from the Ministry of National Defense of Poland, representatives of Polish territorial defense forces, as well as departments of the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation regarding the announced scenarios and recruitment data have not been received.