New discussions about a possible large-scale mobilization have erupted in the Russian information space. Earlier in July, pro-war Telegram channels began actively spreading claims that the Kremlin could initiate a new wave of conscription as early as autumn, immediately after the State Duma elections are completed.
Pro-war channel predictions
According to rumors circulating in messengers, the issue concerns the conscription of a colossal number of people — approximately 1.2 million. The assumed start date for this campaign is October of the current year. These figures and timelines are causing serious concern among analysts and the population; however, no official confirmation has yet been received from the authorities.
Mobilization exercises in the regions
Rumors about upcoming changes in the army's personnel support appeared against the backdrop of real actions by the authorities. As early as June, exercises dedicated to organizing mass mobilization were conducted in Russia. Officials from the Southern Federal District regions, as well as representatives of the administrations of occupied Ukrainian territories, participated in these events.
The conduct of such exercises in border areas and zones controlled by Russia indicates that mobilization issues are at the center of attention for regional authorities and security structures. The link between the June exercises and the July rumors regarding plans for October creates a tense atmosphere of uncertainty.
