The National Bank of Ukraine has announced official exchange rates for Tuesday, September 29, 2026, showing a moderate strengthening of the hryvnia against major global currencies. According to the regulator, the official US dollar exchange rate is set at 44.81 UAH, which is 3 kopecks lower than the previous figure. The euro also showed negative dynamics, falling by 16 kopecks to 50.97 UAH.
The influence of energy prices on the currency market
Experts point out that current stability may be short-lived due to global factors. Taras Lisovoy, Director of the Financial Markets Department at Globus Bank, emphasizes that high energy prices create hidden pressure on Ukraine's currency market. Since the country is critically dependent on fuel imports, rising world oil prices automatically increase the demand from importers to convert hryvnia into foreign currency for settlement purposes.
Forecast and time lags
Specialists note that the market's reaction to oil price increases does not happen instantly. Due to existing procurement contracts, logistics chains, and internal stockpiles, the effect of rising energy prices is spread over time. It is expected that the impact of this factor will become noticeable on the exchange rate within the next few weeks, when importers begin to purchase new fuel shipments at higher prices.
Contradictory data
It is worth noting that expert forecasts for October 2026 differ. While some analysts point to the risk of hryvnia devaluation due to import pressure, other sources emphasize that the NBU has sufficient foreign exchange reserves to smooth out sharp fluctuations, which may prevent significant exchange rate jumps, despite fundamental negative factors.
