The first day of summer brought a familiar picture to the currency market: the dollar stood still, while the euro confidently moved upward. The National Bank of Ukraine approved the official rate for June 1, confirming current trends. If the American currency demonstrates enviable stability, then the European one continues to gain strength, reacting to global market fluctuations.
Numbers of the day: stability vs growth
The official exchange rate of the US dollar on June 1 remained unchanged at 44.26 hryvnias. This indicates that the regulator is currently managing to maintain a stability corridor for the most popular currency in the country. However, the euro is not stopping. Over the past 24 hours, it gained 12 kopecks, reaching the mark of 51.55 hryvnias.
It is worth noting that on the "black market" and in the cash desks of private exchange offices, the situation looks even more dynamic. There, the euro rate has already approached the psychological mark of 52 hryvnias. The European currency continues to react to external factors, ignoring attempts to curb its growth.
Summer factor: how the season saves from inflation
Why is the dollar standing still while the euro is rising? Experts see the key reason in seasonal factors. Taras Lesovoy, Director of the Financial Markets Department of "GLOBUS BANK", points out that the beginning of summer launches a mechanism for the natural cooling of the economy.
The main driver of stability during this period is an abundant harvest. Markets are filled with fresh vegetables, berries, and fruits. This leads to a natural decrease in food prices, which directly affects the overall level of inflation. Moderate inflation is a signal of calm for the population: there is no sharp rise in prices, meaning there is no urgent need to quickly change hryvnias into currency "for a rainy day".
Balance of risks
The decrease in speculative demand for cash currency allows the NBU to keep the dollar rate within the forecast. People are buying fewer dollars, understanding that their savings will not lose value as quickly due to rising prices for basic goods.
Nevertheless, experts do not rule out the emergence of new risks. The global economic situation remains volatile, and external shocks can change the situation at any moment. However, at the moment, the summer season acts as a reliable buffer, smoothing out possible fluctuations and allowing the market to breathe more evenly.