The situation on the front in the Donetsk region remains tense, however, Russian authorities are already considering alternative scenarios for conducting hostilities. According to sources, the Kremlin is studying the possibility of opening a new direction of the offensive — in northern Ukraine, using the territory of Belarus or the Bryansk region of Russia.
Goals for the summer and deadline shift
The main strategic task of Moscow remains the capture of the Kramatorsk-Konstantinovka agglomeration. Control over this region would allow Vladimir Putin to declare full control over the Donetsk region. Initially, Russian promises to capture Konstantinovka, Druzhkivka, Slovyansk and Kramatorsk were tied to the end of summer, but now the deadlines, it seems, are being postponed to the end of the year.
Along with the main line of the front, Russian forces plan to exert pressure in the Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv and Sumy regions.
Losses growth and personnel shortage
The effectiveness of Russia's offensive operations is declining against the backdrop of growing losses. Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov presented alarming statistics: if in April the Russian army lost 179 military personnel per square kilometer of captured territory, then in October this figure increased to 67 people for the same area. At the same time, the current recruitment of contract soldiers barely covers the losses of the occupiers.
Scenario of a new mobilization
Due to the lack of personnel, the Kremlin may be preparing a new wave of mobilization. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, relying on intelligence data and the results of meetings with the military, reported on the possible conscription of another 100 thousand people.
In Russia, the first signals of preparation for this step are already being recorded: citizens are more often receiving mobilization orders obliging them to appear at military commissariats in the event of a new wave of mobilization without issuing additional summonses.
Threat from the north
According to sources, the new mobilization may be aimed not so much at strengthening the group in Donbas, but at conducting a separate offensive operation in northern Ukraine. To prepare for such a scenario, the Russian army will need at least three months.
In May, Volodymyr Zelenskyy already warned about the risks of an attack from the territory of Belarus and the Bryansk region, which prompted Kyiv to strengthen fortifications in the north of the country. According to RBC-Ukraine, about 1900 military personnel are stationed on the border with Belarus — four battalions that are constantly rotated.
However, experts note that a sufficient grouping for a full-scale offensive has not yet been recorded either from Belarus or from the Bryansk region. To implement a real strike in the north, Moscow will need hundreds of thousands of soldiers.