Global energy markets reacted with a sharp drop in quotes to news of an agreement reached between the US and Iran. On Thursday, oil prices fell by more than 1%, returning to levels not seen since the first trading day after the start of hostilities in the region.
Sharp drop in quotes
By the end of trading, the price of the benchmark Brent crude fell by 1.28% to $78.53 per barrel. The American WTI grade showed an even more significant decline — by 1.93% to $75.31. Experts note that Brent has reached its lowest level since March 2, and WTI — since March 4. It was on these dates that trading began on the exchanges after the first US and Israeli strikes on Iran.
The market perceived the decline as a signal that the threat of a global fuel shortage is receding. IG analyst Tony Sicamore commented on the situation, noting that energy markets are actively factoring into forecasts a faster-than-expected return of Iranian barrels to world trade.
Essence of the agreement and prospects for the Strait of Hormuz
The key factor putting pressure on prices was the agreement between Washington and Tehran. The document provides for the cessation of the conflict and, critically important for the economy, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway is a strategic arterial route for global oil and gas exports.
According to the terms of the 14-point memorandum, Iran undertakes to ensure free navigation through the strait during a 60-day negotiation period. Full restoration of traffic is expected within 30 days. In addition, the agreement provides for a relaxation of sanctions pressure against Iran, however, more complex issues, in particular regarding the nuclear program, have been postponed for the future.
Bank forecasts and restoration of supplies
Financial institutions have already adjusted their forecasts in light of the news. Goldman Sachs expects that exports from Gulf countries will return to pre-war levels by the end of July, and crude oil production will recover by October. To achieve this, according to the bank's estimates, supply volumes from the Strait of Hormuz region must increase by 13 million barrels per day, which would be about 70% of the pre-conflict level.
At the same time, BNP Paribas experts take a more cautious position. The bank believes that the price of $75 per barrel will become a stable lower level for the near future, given supply losses and sustained high demand. For comparison, before the start of the war, Brent traded in the range of $60–70.
Logistics problems and global demand
Despite optimistic statements, experts warn that millions of barrels will not appear on the markets instantly. At the moment, 118 loaded tankers are stuck in the Persian Gulf, and a significant part of the region's infrastructure requires restoration. The US and its partners must develop a $300 billion plan to rebuild Iran.
An additional factor influencing long-term forecasts is the change in demand in China. The PetroChina research division forecasts that the world's second-largest oil consumer will purchase 753 million metric tons of fuel in 2026. This is 4.9% less than in 2025, due to the transition to alternative energy sources and high prices.
Recall that as early as June 15, oil prices already demonstrated a crash to a minimum since March 10 after Donald Trump announced the achievement of a preliminary agreement and the lifting of the naval blockade. The current drop in quotes confirms that the market continues to react to any signs of easing tensions in the key oil-producing region.