Global markets are facing a new wave of volatility: oil prices have reached a monthly high, reacting to a sharp escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The key factor is the risk of supply disruptions from the Persian Gulf against the backdrop of uncertainty in negotiations between Washington and Tehran.

Sharp Spike in Quotes

The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil during trading held around the $92 per barrel mark, showing a rise of more than 5% by the end of the previous session. British Brent crude also showed a steady rise, trading just below the $95 per barrel level.

Price dynamics were directly linked to the news background: on Monday, quotes rose after reports that Iran suspended negotiations with the US. Tehran expressed protest against Israel's actions in Lebanon. However, shortly thereafter, the rate began to decline when US President Donald Trump stated that dialogue between the parties continues.

Trump's Position and Deal Prospects

In a phone call with ABC News, Donald Trump reported that a memorandum of understanding with Iran regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could be signed within the next week. At the same time, the White House chief emphasized that Washington needs to "get a few more points" before signing the final deal.

Experts note that the lack of clarity regarding the future of energy flows through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz has a direct impact on the market. Previously, prices fell against a backdrop of optimism regarding a possible agreement, but the current situation is introducing corrections again.

Threat of Closing the Straits

The situation is exacerbated by statements from Iran. In a message from the semi-official news agency Tasnim, it is said that Tehran and its regional intermediaries have included the issue of the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz on the agenda. The possibility of blocking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — a critically important alternative for oil exports — is also being discussed.

Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group, warned of the risks:

  • The absence of active negotiations deprives the market of security guarantees.
  • The parties cannot reach a final decision, which generates constant disputes.
  • Investors are losing a guide to determining the best scenario for the development of events.

Diplomatic Confusion

The situation is complicated by a divergence of opinions between country leaders. Bloomberg notes that the confusion was intensified by conflicting assessments by Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu regarding hostilities in Lebanon. Iran officially announced the suspension of negotiations precisely due to the intensification of the conflict in this region.

Nevertheless, against the backdrop of these events, a ceasefire agreement was reached between Tel Aviv and the Hezbollah movement. The document, approved with US mediation, should apply to all Lebanese territories. The next rounds of negotiations are scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday, which could become a key factor in stabilizing oil prices.