The global hydrocarbon market is experiencing a sharp correction. On Wednesday, Brent crude prices fell by more than $3 per barrel, while the US benchmark WTI lost almost as much. Essentially, quotes have returned to the levels seen before the escalation of the conflict with Iran. The market reacted instantly to the resumption of shipping through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

The main driver of the decline was the agreement between the US and Iran, which removed the threat of a complete blockade of the planet's main oil corridor. Investors and traders are factoring into prices the imminent return of Middle Eastern oil to global markets, a process that is moving faster than predicted two weeks ago.

The speed of the drop caught analysts off guard

"The speed of this drop caught many off guard, as markets are factoring in the return of Middle Eastern oil into prices significantly faster than expected two weeks ago," noted Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG. Additional pressure on quotes is being exerted by Tehran's intentions to increase exports following the temporary easing of US sanctions.

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright confirmed that supply volumes through the Strait of Hormuz have already approached pre-war levels. In the last 24 hours, at least 20 million barrels of oil have passed through the choke point. However, the full restoration of logistics chains will take several more weeks: the strait requires careful demining.

Wright also emphasized that oil will flow through the Hormuz even if the agreement with Iran is not fully honored. According to him, Tehran will no longer be able to block this route again.

Forecasts for the third quarter

Macquarie analysts expect a quick normalization of the situation in the market. Their forecast for average prices in the third quarter looks as follows:

  • Brent crude: $82 per barrel.
  • WTI crude: $76 per barrel.

For comparison, in the second quarter, average prices were $94 and $87, respectively. Global oil prices began to plummet as early as mid-June 2026, when it became obvious that the Strait of Hormuz was gradually resuming operations. Tankers are once again openly passing through the planet's main oil corridor.

From paralysis to free navigation

Just a few weeks ago, movement through the strait was paralyzed due to the real threat of Iranian missiles, drones, and mines. The International Maritime Organization stated that it had received security guarantees that would allow hundreds of vessels to leave the Persian Gulf.

The turning point came after Washington and Tehran reported progress in negotiations to end the war. The US issued Iran a 60-day license to sell oil on the global market. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also stated that passage through the Strait of Hormuz would be free. No country in the world would support the introduction of a toll for it.