Energy markets are once again ablaze. On Thursday, May 28, oil prices surged sharply in response to the escalation of the conflict in the Persian Gulf. The trigger for the spike was a statement by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) regarding a strike on a US airbase. Investors, who were hoping for peace as recently as yesterday, are now reassessing the risks of key maritime arteries being blocked.
The emotional reaction of the stock exchanges was instant and painful. Futures for the benchmark Brent crude rose by 2.52%, reaching $96.67 per barrel. The American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) grade showed similar dynamics, rising by 2.53% to $90.92. This is a sharp reversal of the situation: the day before, both grades had lost more than 5% of their value, dropping to monthly lows. At that time, the market was fueled by hopes for a swift ceasefire and the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz.
Events unfolded rapidly. Immediately after US President Donald Trump publicly denied rumors of a compromise with Tehran, Iranian authorities announced a counterattack. The IRGC confirmed the attack on the US base in response to US military actions in the Bandar Abbas airport area. Experts, such as John Evans from PVM Oil Association, believe that this exchange of airstrikes is part of a tough negotiation rhetoric designed to strengthen the parties' positions at the negotiating table.
Recall that at the center of the diplomatic deadlock is the issue of shipping safety. The parties are discussing a plan that should guarantee the full opening of the Strait of Hormuz one month after signing a ceasefire agreement. However, as current dynamics show, trust is still far off. The White House, in turn, categorically rejected reports from Iranian television about an allegedly ready memorandum, calling them "complete fiction".
Parallel to the geopolitical tension in Iran, internal changes are also taking place. President Masoud Pezeshkian has ordered the restoration of access to the international internet. This decision was a response to nearly three months of total blockades that paralyzed the country's digital life and exacerbated economic problems.