The escalation of geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran has already made itself felt on world exchanges. A sharp spike in oil prices in response to US strikes on Iranian facilities will inevitably lead to a revision of price tags at Ukrainian gas stations. This was stated in a comment to RBC-Ukraine by fuel expert, Director of the Consulting Group "A-95", Sergey Kuyun.

The Mechanism of Dependence: Why We Pay More

The Ukrainian fuel market does not exist in a vacuum and is fully synchronized with global trends. The logic is simple and relentless: when the cost of oil products rises on the international arena, it automatically pulls prices up in Ukraine as well. Conversely, a decline in world quotes leads to cheaper fuel for us.

"We have already gone through this. Prices go up there, they go up here. It's very simple," Kuyun states.

The provocation for a new wave of growth was the US strikes on Iran, carried out in response to attacks on merchant vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The oil market reacted instantly, showing some of the highest values in recent weeks.

Growth Scenarios: From Gradual to Shock

The speed at which Ukrainian drivers will see new figures on the gas station displays will depend directly on the dynamics of events in the Middle East. The expert highlights two possible scenarios for the development of events:

  • Gradual growth: If prices on the world market rise gradually, the increase in Ukraine will also be moderate and stretched over time.
  • Sharp spike: In the event of a rapid escalation, similar to the events of March, the cost of gasoline or diesel could jump by 10–20 hryvnias in just one or two weeks.

At the moment, according to Kuyun, the situation on world markets, although fixing an increase, remains significantly calmer than during the March shock. Therefore, a sharp surge in prices in Ukraine is not yet observed.

Why Prices Fall Slower Than They Rise

An important aspect that is often overlooked is the asymmetry of pricing. The decline in fuel prices always occurs much slower than their growth. Sergey Kuyun explains this by the specifics of logistics and procurement.

"We don't buy oil, we buy oil products. Oil products have not fallen in price. They fell for three months, and rose in a month. How can gas station prices fall as quickly as they rose? Well, that's some kind of absurdity, if the fall itself stretched over three months and still didn't reach the beginning," the expert presents arguments.

Thus, Ukrainian drivers should be prepared for the fact that even with a stabilization of the situation in the Middle East, the process of returning prices to previous levels will be long and difficult.