In early August, the Ukrainian currency market will face a new wave of pressure, driven by global oil prices. Experts forecast an increase in demand for foreign currency from businesses, but warn that sharp fluctuations in the hryvnia exchange rate are not expected. The National Bank of Ukraine will continue to play a key role in stabilizing the situation.
Oil as a driver of currency demand
Taras Lesovoy, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Activities Department at Globus Bank, told RBC-Ukraine that energy imports are one of the most sensitive factors for the economy in the coming weeks. Since Ukraine depends on external fuel supplies, any fluctuations in global oil prices are almost immediately reflected in importers' demand for dollars and euros.
"When the situation in the oil market remains uncertain, energy traders try to stay ahead. For them, it is more profitable to acquire currency in advance than to wait for a moment when both the cost of oil and the dollar exchange rate may rise simultaneously," explained the banker.
Preparation for autumn and winter
In addition to traditional fuel purchases in early August, businesses will be preparing for the autumn-winter season. Companies will be building up fuel reserves and purchasing generators, batteries, energy equipment, and components — a significant portion of which is imported. This will inevitably lead to increased demand for foreign currency from the corporate sector.
However, according to the expert, these operations are predictable, and the National Bank is capable of offsetting the additional demand through currency interventions. The regime of managed flexibility maintained by the NBU will prevent sharp changes in the exchange rate.
Inflation expectations and public behavior
For ordinary Ukrainians, gasoline and diesel prices remain one of the most visible indicators of the cost of living. Their rise may intensify inflation expectations and stimulate interest in foreign currency. Nevertheless, the banker does not currently expect a mass shift of the population into dollars or euros.
"At present, there is an important restraining factor — the yield on hryvnia deposits. With moderate inflation and controlled exchange rate fluctuations, they allow not only to preserve the purchasing power of funds but also to obtain a real income," noted Lesovoy.
An alternative to deposits remains the Internal Government Bonds (OVGZ), the income from which is tax-exempt. These instruments make hryvnia assets attractive even in conditions of volatility.
Risks and restraining factors
Additional risks for the currency market remain attacks on energy and logistics infrastructure. They can simultaneously increase the need for equipment imports and complicate exports, creating additional pressure on the currency market.
At the same time, seasonal increases in the supply of vegetables, fruits, and other agricultural products will partially curb inflationary pressure. Although logistical problems may neutralize this effect, the seasonal factor remains an important element of the balance.
Forecast for the coming week
According to Taras Lesovoy, fuel prices may become the main factor of tension in the currency market in early August. However, thanks to the actions of the NBU and the attractiveness of hryvnia instruments, this is unlikely to lead to sharp exchange rate fluctuations.
The expert emphasizes that the National Bank will continue to remain the key stabilizer of the currency market, ensuring predictability and preventing panic reactions from market participants.
Note: This material is prepared for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Investments involve risk, including the possibility of losing the entire capital. RBC-Ukraine is not responsible for financial decisions made based on this material. Before making any investment decisions, we recommend consulting a licensed financial advisor.
