The "black gold" market is once again demonstrating high volatility. As of July 10, oil prices are rising steadily, reacting to the intensification of geopolitical tensions in key production and transportation regions. Investors are recording a significant increase in quotes, which analysts link to the risks of supply disruptions.

Record price growth for the week

By the end of the trading week, a substantial increase in the cost of major oil grades is expected. Brent futures may gain around 6%, while the American WTI grade will show growth at the level of 5%. This surge became a reaction to a series of events taking place in the Middle East region.

Risk factors: The Strait of Hormuz and shipping

Vandana Hari, founder of the analytics company Vanda Insights, commented on the current situation. According to her, although prices have generally retreated from the peak values recorded mid-week, a significant risk premium remains in the market.

The main cause for experts' concern is the near-total cessation of transit through the Strait of Hormuz — a strategically vital node through which a significant portion of global oil shipments pass. An additional factor pressuring prices is the lack of signs of a rapid recovery in shipping in the region.

Military escalation and the nuclear issue

The price increase is driven not only by economic factors but also by the military situation. On the evening of July 9, Iranian military forces carried out attacks on US military infrastructure in Persian Gulf countries. Iranian sources characterize these actions as a retaliatory response to US strikes on southern coastal and eastern provinces of Iran.

The situation is complicated by reports from Iranian media of multiple explosions in the south of the country, specifically in the city of Bushehr. It is in this region that the nuclear power plant is located, raising additional concerns regarding the safety of critical infrastructure.

Diplomacy amidst the crisis

Despite active hostilities, diplomatic channels remain open. The US and Iran continue to attempt to reach an agreement, although the details of the negotiations are not disclosed publicly. At the same time, the US administration has taken a tough stance: the White House stated that it will not allow Tehran to implement plans to create nuclear weapons.