The global energy market is experiencing one of its most tense moments in recent times. For the first time in two months, the price of oil has crossed the psychologically important mark of $100 per barrel. This sharp spike in the cost of the raw material is a direct consequence of the rapid escalation of tensions in the Middle East, where the conflict has entered a new, more dangerous phase.
New Front in the Red Sea
The key trigger for the price increase was the actions of Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. The militants announced an attack on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea. Using missiles and drones, they are attempting to implement the blockade of Saudi ports announced earlier this week. This event is critical as it opens a new front in the conflict, which was previously focused around the Strait of Hormuz.
According to Bloomberg, the attacks in the Red Sea threaten a critical detour route that Saudi Arabia has used for oil exports. The reduction in capacity through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is forcing shipowners to seek alternatives. Some vessels are already changing course, while major buyers from India and other Asian countries are considering switching to a longer route via the Suez Canal, which will inevitably increase logistics costs.
Geopolitical Shock and Trump's Threats
The situation in the region is exacerbated by mutual strikes between Iran and the United States. In recent days, Iran has attacked ships in the Strait of Hormuz. In response, the United States has conducted bombings of the Islamic Republic over the past 12 days and resumed the blockade of Iranian ports. Tehran, in turn, has responded with attacks on US allies in the region.
Tensions reached a peak following statements by US President Donald Trump. He publicly threatened to strike Iran's bridges and power plants. Furthermore, Trump reiterated threats against Mount Parvin, where intelligence suggests an Iranian nuclear facility may be located. These statements, made on July 23, led to prices rising to $96 per barrel, while on July 22, quotes had already reached $92 amid fears of supply disruptions.
Economic Consequences and Forecasts
The market reacts instantly and harshly to news. Brent crude futures have risen by more than 30% since the beginning of the month, approaching their highest level since the end of May. Experts note that the situation is also influenced by the war between Russia and Ukraine, which threatens oil exports from Kazakhstan. Combined with a reduction in global reserves, this creates ideal conditions for a painful price surge.
Analysts predict that if hostilities in the Middle East continue, oil prices could rise even further later this year. The world stands on the brink of a serious energy crisis, where every new attack on a tanker or threat to a nuclear facility could lead to new historical highs on the exchanges.
