The strategy of military-technical support for Ukraine may undergo fundamental changes. According to data published by the British publication Financial Times, the administration of US President Donald Trump is considering a transition from simple arms transfers to an industrial licensing model. A key element of the new strategy under discussion is granting Kyiv the rights to domestically produce components for air defense systems.
From Deliveries to Production Licenses
During a bilateral meeting of the leaders of the US and Ukraine, held in July 2026 on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara, Washington indicated its readiness to change the format of cooperation. The main emphasis will be placed on the transfer of official licenses for the production of surface-to-air guided missiles for the Patriot family of air defense systems. In particular, this concerns PAC-3 interceptor missiles developed by Lockheed Martin.
The decision to switch to licensing is dictated by objective factors. Warehouse stocks of ready-made ammunition at the disposal of the US Department of Defense are being depleted, which is related to the involvement of the US army in other regional conflicts. The transfer of technological processes to Ukrainian production capacities is viewed by the White House as a long-term tool for ensuring the stability of supplies. This approach will allow for the optimization of logistics chains and reduce the direct burden on the US defense budget.
Review of Restrictions on the Use of Weapons
The second significant vector of discussions was the possible review of restrictions on the use of long-range missile systems. According to FT materials, the US administration and a number of European defense departments are inclined to believe that Ukrainian forces should be allowed to strike logistics and energy facilities in the deep rear of the enemy.
The change in Washington's position is based on an assessment of the effectiveness of Ukrainian unmanned systems. Analytical centers, including Chatham House, note that the effectiveness of drone strikes on facilities in the rear of the Russian Federation has influenced the assessment of the operational potential of the parties. The US diplomatic strategy proceeds from the premise that demonstrating large-scale long-range capabilities can change the strategic calculations of the Kremlin and accelerate the move to a diplomatic track for settlement.
Europe's Reaction and Legal Barriers
The US initiative is finding an echo in Europe. A group of nine countries, including Germany, Poland, and the Netherlands, has sent an official appeal to the European Commission. The countries propose to promptly finance the purchase of American missile armaments, including PAC-3, ATACMS, and AIM-120, within the framework of the EU defense package for 2026–2027. The goal is to ensure the continuity of support for Kyiv.
However, the implementation of plans to transfer technology is fraught with bureaucratic difficulties. According to the provisions of US export control (ITAR), the transfer of licenses for the production of military products requires mandatory coordination with the State Department and relevant committees of Congress. Under existing regulatory restrictions, the process may take from several months to a year, which determines the medium-term nature of the planned military-industrial programs.
