The figures speak of triumph: the total revenue of Ukraine's hotel sector over four years of war has made an incredible leap — from 8.2 billion UAH in 2022 to 53.3 billion by the end of 2025. It seems the industry has not only survived but flourished. However, behind these impressive figures lies a harsh reality: the sector continues to operate at a deep loss, and the concept of 'profitability' has become an unattainable dream for many players.
Growth Through Ash and Smoke
Statistics are relentless, yet paradoxical. Despite the occupation of territories and constant threats, the number of hotels and complexes in the country has grown by 13% — reaching 2,854 facilities. Tax discipline has also improved: 4.4 billion UAH were collected into budgets at all levels, more than doubling the figures of the previous year. The tourist levy, collected primarily in Kyiv, Lviv, and Ivano-Frankivsk, also demonstrates steady growth.
But money flowing into the cash register does not equal profit. The average daily rate (ADR) has risen by 30–40%, reaching 4,000–4,500 UAH per night. This is less a merit of managers and more a consequence of inflation. Rising electricity tariffs added 17% to the cost of a room, while fuel price hikes added another 15–20%. Hotels are forced to pass these costs on to guests just to stay afloat.
The Security Trap
The main reason for the gap between high revenues and negative capital is structural. The war has changed the very essence of the business model. What used to be one-time investments has now become a permanent line item in expenses. Generators, backup power systems, independent internet, and reinforced protection are no longer options but necessities.
According to experts, ensuring autonomy consumes 15 to 25% of operating expenses. Costs for fuel for generators have doubled in recent years, reaching almost 900 million UAH. As Victoria Berezhchak, a real estate market expert, notes, investments in security have turned into a permanent element of cost of goods sold that cannot be removed from the budget.
Geography of Survival
The map of profitability in Ukraine is uneven. While Lviv and Bukovel show occupancy rates of up to 95% during the season, the average figure for the country remains at a meager 25–26%. This means that most hotels are idle, yet they continue to pay for maintenance and security.
The situation is critical: the industry's own capital remains deeply negative. In the Lviv region, it has grown by 22%, but in the Ivano-Frankivsk region, the debt of key players has increased by 52%. This is a signal that many resort facilities are operating on the brink of collapse, racking up debt to cover operating costs.
Who Will Stay in the Game?
The future of the industry looks like a harsh natural selection. Experts predict that in the next three years, the market will transform. The role of external management companies will grow, as owners cannot cope with optimization in the new conditions.
Only two types of players will survive: systemic facilities with impeccable efficiency and narrow niche projects with a strong concept. Everything in between — the 'middle class' of hotels without a clear idea and management system — will gradually disappear, making way for those who have learned to earn despite the war.
