A sharp political drama is unfolding in Armenia. Immediately after the conclusion of voting in the parliamentary elections on June 7, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan declared the victory of his party, "Civil Contract." However, this triumph was overshadowed: the opposition categorically refuses to recognize the results and accuses the authorities of manipulating the vote count.
"Vote of Confidence" and the Mathematics of Power
Speaking to supporters, Nikol Pashinyan emphasized that his party received votes from a larger number of citizens compared to the 2021 elections. According to him, the "Civil Contract" has enough votes to form a government independently.
However, the dry figures contradict the rhetoric of total victory. According to the data, the party received 49.81% of the votes. This means Pashinyan did not even reach the symbolic threshold of 50%. Furthermore, to form a stable majority, the electoral code requires securing 54%.
The Mechanism of "Stable Majority"
The situation in the Armenian parliament is regulated by a specific mechanism. The electoral code stipulates that if the leader of the race does not secure the required number of mandates and cannot form a coalition, bonus seats in parliament are allocated through a second round of voting. It is precisely this scenario that will likely be realized, given the current figures.
Explosive Conflict with the Opposition
The atmosphere surrounding the elections has reached a boiling point. Samvel Karapetyan, the leader of the opposition bloc "Strong Armenia," called the announced results "shameful." He claims that the authorities, seeing their results diminish, simply stopped the count.
"We don't even understand what they will present in the morning," Karapetyan stated, hinting at a lack of transparency in the final stage of data processing. The opposition insists that the counting process was falsified to hide the real situation.
The Gap Between Forecasts and Reality
The crisis of trust in the elections is exacerbated by a radical discrepancy between sociologists' forecasts and official statistics. The initial data from the Central Election Commission turned out to be significantly more modest than expected: exit polls gave Pashinyan up to 70% support, while the real figures were close to 50%.
This gap became grounds for new accusations against the authorities. Experts and observers note that such discrepancies often indicate problems at polling stations or in the counting system.
The Shadow of Hybrid Pressure
The elections in Armenia took place against the backdrop of a complex geopolitical situation. Earlier, analysts noted that the Kremlin had launched hybrid pressure against Pashinyan. This included a ban on the import of Armenian cognac and vegetables, as well as threats to triple the price of gas. These factors could have significantly influenced the mood of the electorate and the final result of the vote.