The situation on the northern front remains tense, yet the Ukrainian command remains confident in its ability to contain potential provocations. Despite active Russian operations near the border, Kyiv believes that organizing a full-scale major offensive from Belarus would require Moscow to mobilize resources it may not possess.
This was stated by Major General Oleksandr Pivnenko, Commander of the National Guard of Ukraine, in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine. According to him, the enemy's strategy in the north is likely aimed at stretching Ukrainian forces to create a foothold for further advancement deep into the territory.
The Problem of Enemy Numbers
Pivnenko emphasized that realizing such ambitious plans would require the enemy to have significant manpower reserves. The Major General did not rule out that Russia might attempt to find the necessary forces but expressed confidence that the Ukrainian side will do everything possible to hinder this process.
"The enemy's main task is to stretch our forces to advance deeper into the territory faster. But for that, they also need manpower — let them find 70,000 servicemen capable of operating, let them try. We will try to make sure they don't find them," stated the NGU Commander.
At the same time, the General noted that Russia is currently facing serious problems on other sectors of the front, particularly in the Pokrovsk direction, where enemy infantry losses remain high. This casts doubt on Moscow's ability to quickly organize new groupings for an offensive in the north.
The Situation at the Border and the Role of Belarus
The Commander of the National Guard confirmed that the Russian special purpose center "Senezh" is already operating near the Ukrainian border in the Chernihiv direction. However, National Guard units, together with other components of the Defense Forces, continue to carry out tasks to protect the borders.
Particular attention is paid to the use of unmanned aerial vehicles and round-the-clock monitoring of the situation. Pivnenko assured that if the enemy plans to advance in the Chernihiv or Chernobyl directions, the Ukrainian military is ready. "2022 will not be repeated here," he emphasized.
The question of Belarus's possible participation in hostilities has once again become relevant against the backdrop of mutual statements by the leaders of the countries. Commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces Robert "Madyar" Brovdy reported that Ukrainian military personnel have already identified hundreds of potential targets on the territory of the neighboring republic. In response, Alexander Lukashenko threatened to strike a "very serious" target in Ukraine.
Nevertheless, analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have not yet detected signs of preparation for a new ground offensive from the territory of Belarus. Experts suggest that Russia may use the republic's territory primarily to strike western regions of Ukraine, but a full-scale ground operation requires resources that are currently in short supply.