Colonel Paweł Sota, head of Poland's Foreign Intelligence Agency (AWP), voiced alarming predictions regarding Russia's actions in an interview with the Rzeczpospolita. According to him, Vladimir Putin, trapped by failures in Ukraine, will strive to further escalate the conflict to save face and maintain imperial ambitions.
Russia Ready to Sacrifice Economy for a 'Matter of Honor'
In the opinion of the head of Polish civilian intelligence, Moscow views Poland and the countries of NATO's eastern flank as the main obstacle to its goals. Sota claims that the Kremlin is ready to sacrifice the well-being of citizens and its own economy just to end the war with a victory. For Putin, this has become a matter of personal honor.
"Seeing what is happening in Ukraine, and how Russia's war is currently going not very well, there is an additional element of concern that Moscow may further exacerbate the situation," Sota emphasized.
Provocation Scenarios and 'Little Green Men'
The Polish intelligence service confirmed that scenarios of Russian provocations against the Baltic states or Poland itself are currently being actively considered. In particular, operations involving so-called "little green men" — Russian military personnel without identification marks — are not ruled out.
Experts note that Russia is systematically shifting "red lines" and testing NATO's reaction. Since the Alliance responds to such challenges primarily politically, the price of such provocations for Moscow remains low, which only encourages the Kremlin to further escalate.
The Role of Belarus and the Nuclear Factor
Particular concern is caused by the situation in Belarus, which is falling increasingly under the Kremlin's control. Facilities for the deployment of nuclear weapon delivery systems, including the "Oreshnik" complex, are being built in the republic.
However, Warsaw assures that it will not remain passive. Polish authorities state that they possess tools for offensive operations, including in cyberspace, and are ready to respond to aggression.
Reaction of Polish Politicians
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk confirmed that the situation is extremely unstable and various types of escalation are expected in the coming months. At the same time, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski assured that as long as Ukraine is successfully resisting, Russia does not have the strength for a successful attack on a NATO member.
Nevertheless, Sikorski threatened Putin with serious consequences in the event of an attack and suggested that Russia might stage an operation under a foreign flag to get a pretext for a strike. According to him, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania currently feel most vulnerable, as threats are being issued against them from Moscow.
Context: Testing Western Unity
Earlier, the British publication The Guardian wrote about Russia's plans to stage provocations against NATO in the near future. According to intelligence, the Kremlin is trying to test the readiness of the US to defend the smallest members of the bloc. Russia may be preparing military and hybrid provocations on the eastern flank to test Western unity against the backdrop of Ukraine's long-range strikes.