On August 9, 2026, the information space is actively discussing a piece by the British publication The Sunday Times, dedicated to analyzing the effectiveness of strikes by the Armed Forces of Ukraine against the infrastructure of the Russian Federation. Contradictory interpretations of the article by expert Mark Galeotti have appeared online: some sources claim the attacks are "playing into Moscow's hands," while others argue they are causing irreparable damage to the Russian economy. The XAB.info editorial team conducted a fact-check and compared the original source with its interpretations on social media.

Economic damage: analyst data

According to the text of Mark Galeotti's article, published in the August 8–9 edition, Ukraine's deep strike campaign demonstrates high technical effectiveness. The expert provides specific figures indicating massive losses in Russian industry. In particular, it is noted that at the peak of the campaign, more than one-third (33%) of all Russian oil refining capacity was put out of operation. As recent examples, attacks on the "Bashneft-Novoyl" and "Slavneft-YANOS" plants are cited.

Special attention in the material is paid to the logistics sector. Galeotti describes a strategy he calls the "war of warehouses," aimed at destroying supply chains. The article states that strikes on the logistics hubs of Russia's largest marketplace, Wildberries, including a recent event in Yekaterinburg, led to the destruction of 20% of warehouse space. According to the author's estimates, the direct damage to Russian business in this segment has already exceeded 280 billion rubles (approximately £2.5 billion).

Blockade of the Sea of Azov and transport collapse

An important aspect of the analysis is the impact of strikes on maritime transport. The Sunday Times reports a significant reduction in trade traffic in the Sea of Azov. According to data cited in the article, 236 vessels were attacked in July 2026. As a result, the expert notes, shipping volume in the region decreased by 75%, which effectively means a threefold drop in activity in this strategically important area.

Contradictory data

A version has appeared in Telegram channels and social networks claiming that The Sunday Times article states that Kyiv's hopes to undermine the Russian economy were not fulfilled, and the attacks only consolidate Russian society. However, upon cross-checking with the original text, it turns out to be a deliberate distortion of the meaning. In reality, the author writes that, similar to the bombing of London during World War II, the attacks did not break the will but inflicted colossal damage. The difference lies in the interpretation of the political reaction: while fake versions speak of a "victory for Putin," the original article points to a drop in trust ratings for the authorities due to panic in society and the inability to protect civilian infrastructure.

Political risks and scenarios for autumn 2026

Mark Galeotti warns about the internal political dynamics in Russia. In his opinion, successful strikes on the rear create a complex dilemma for the leadership of the Russian Federation. On the one hand, this undermines the population's trust in the state's ability to ensure security. On the other hand, it gives radical factions ("hawks") a reason to demand stricter measures. The expert predicts that a general mobilization may be announced in the autumn of 2026, which would mark a transition to a more severe phase of the conflict. At the same time, the article quotes Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin, who, according to the publication, opposes full mobilization, arguing that it could destroy the civilian economy.