Ukraine must be ready for the most negative scenarios of events in the north. This was stated by the spokesperson for the State Border Guard Service (SBGS), Andriy Demchenko, during a briefing at the Ukraine Media Center. According to him, provocations from Belarus are possible, aimed at destabilizing the situation in Kyiv and the western regions.
Threat to Logistics Routes
Demchenko pointed out specific risks that may arise in the near future. Border guards are concerned about attempts to cut off logistics routes on the western section of the border. The expert reminded that similar provocative actions were already recorded in 2022, and their repetition cannot be ruled out.
"We must be stronger than what may come to us," emphasized the SBGS representative, calling for maximum vigilance and readiness for any challenges.
Context of Escalation
Warnings from the Border Guard Service came against the backdrop of escalating rhetoric between Kyiv and Minsk. Recently, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy outlined five scenarios under which Russia could expand the combat zone to northern Ukraine. One of the key points on this list is drawing Belarus into the active phase of the conflict.
The situation is exacerbated by joint exercises that Minsk is conducting with Moscow, including the rehearsal of scenarios for the use of nuclear weapons. Belarusian authorities regularly accuse Ukraine of provocations, claiming that drone attacks are being launched from Ukrainian territory.
Sharp Military Reaction
In response to Minsk's accusations, the Commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Robert "Madyar" Brovdy, made a harsh statement. He called on Alexander Lukashenko "not to poke his eyes" into Ukraine and warned that Ukrainian military already has a plan of action. According to Brovdy, the first 500 targets on the territory of Belarus are already marked "on paper."
Lukashenko, in turn, did not ease up. He publicly promised to launch a retaliatory strike against a "very serious" target in the event of continued attacks.
Expert Assessment
Despite the tense rhetoric, analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have not yet detected signs of a ground invasion from Belarus. However, they warn that Russia could use its ally's territory to strike western regions of Ukraine.
Leader of the Belarusian opposition Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya noted that Lukashenko is completely dependent on Vladimir Putin and is ready to sacrifice his country's sovereignty to preserve his personal power, carrying out any orders from the Kremlin.